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Hatin

1/22/17       
Joel

So I am in the mood to tell it like it is. I have irons in other fires nowadays and really don't care about my rep. So you, the intrepid carpenter, woodworker, cabinetmaker go to happy customers house and work your ass off on their stickley inspired arts and crafts beaded goo gaw all day. Commercial isn't much better. Then you go home to YOUR crummy apartment or small house you can't afford to paint. Want out, work for yourself, not so easy pal O mine. Wanna get good and make furniture, sorry sold out to the chinese.
As a construction employee as a matter of course you are treated like sugar and expected to beg for more. Paid poorly and fired on a whim. I think it pisses me off so much because I had a corporate job for a couple years and know how very much better they have it.
The question is...what to do about it. I love cabinets but don't miss the PATHETIC pay. Save your anti hate speeches for someone who cares. The view from afield.

1/22/17       #3: Hatin ...
Larry

It is possible to make a semi decent living with wood, but you would be better off going back to corporateville.

1/22/17       #4: Hatin ...
Skip

I am there with you .The best I can tell you is hang in there.I just deal with it and keep moving on.In the last 12 years .I ran a shop for a building contracter fired for not making him enough money (very bad bus. man trust me) Ran a woodworking division for a mica shop (Woodworking can not be done as fast as mica) Worked in a real good wood working shop ( got fired for being funny) All work was done on time and in budget. I say some people just don,t get it.
It is all very fustrating but I sill love what I do
Cannot Soar like an Eagle when you fly with turkeys

1/22/17       #5: Hatin ...
Family Man

I'm always shocked when a fast food worker goes on TV and says, "I can't live on this wage."...yeah, no shit it's a fast food job- it wasn't meant to be livable.

I understand your frustration though. I hope you were a Trump voter.

But, come on...it's not hard to know going in what the pay is in any given occupation or the circumstances under which you operate. If you aren't wise enough to do those two things then you aren't the type to make money in this business- because it can be done. But you have to be laser focused, organized plus have the abilities- which are hard earned in blood, sweat, tears and years of scratching out a living first usually.

You know kind of like most every professional. You don't start on top unless your damn lucky. It takes perseverance, long past when if you were "smart" you'd have quit. Otherwise you are just labor, and labor is replaceable. Sad, but true- especially in a global market. If you don't want to be replaceable and make an unreplaceable wage then you have to be unreplaceable.

Skip, sorry 3 for 3, I'm not buying it. There is a common denominator in there-you. Quit bellyaching and learn from it. I'm sure all the shops could be much improved, but I bet your performance could have been too also. I bet they are still in business- no? It means they are doing something right.

I've not got it all figured out yet guys and am still learning from my (many) mistakes but making a good living and being respected and being treated like you are unreplaceable in this industry is possible- I know because I've gotten that far. Can I keep it? Who knows. Do I loose the hunger? Get lazy? Complacent? Take things for granted? Get greedy? Think about taking short cuts...I hope not because I know there is some kid out there just trying to take my place and he better bring his A game because I'm not ready to head off into the sunset yet. So the more bitching I hear from the likes of you gives me one less guy to worry about. Keep it up, your making my job easier.

1/22/17       #6: Hatin ...
Cabmaker

FamilyMan,

Why would you hope the OP was a Trump voter?

1/22/17       #7: Hatin ...
Skip

Hi Family man, @0f the three are out of buss, now Thw other went in a different direction.If you knew me better you would not have said that about me. But that is Ok.
When I work for some I give it my best shot.
I have been in true custom woodworking for over 30 years. Truth is I cannot control the economy.

1/22/17       #8: Hatin ...
Family Man

Skip,
11 out of the last 15 years have been good years in our industry. You can't win them all, you can only be in a position to survive the hard times. I don't know you but reread your post and see how it comes across in a year where if you are not making money in woodworking, well you never will, if you've been playing the game for 30 years especially.

Cabmaker, because he addresses the very issues the OP is complaining about. I don't know that this country will have the toughness to withstand the pain that the very needed fixes he is going to implement- and like a cancer patient giving up chemo a third of the way through- we will only get the negatives of the cure and not have the endurance to see it through to being cleared. I kind of suspect that to be the case. But what is being proposed is exactly what is needed, at least a very good start. Let's try not to get this one taken down my interstate rival, huh? I've said my piece and will leave it at that.

1/22/17       #9: Hatin ...
Cabmaker

FamilyMan,

The jobs in this country did not go away because of globalism. They went away because of automation. The coal industry did not atrophy because of the EPA. It died because fracking brought us cheap natural gas.

Automation is still coming. As soon as driverless transportation shows up there's going to be a whole lot fewer people building cars and trucks. There's going to be a whole lot fewer diesel mechanics working at the truck stop and a whole lot fewer waitresses serving apple pie to those truck drivers. A robot doesn't need any pie with it's coffee. A robot doesn't even need a cup of coffee.

These jobs aren't coming back and it has nothing to do with a badly negotiated trade deal. There is a reason half the 'Make America Great' baseball hats at the inauguration were made in Viet Nam.

1/22/17       #10: Hatin ...
Family Man

Cabmaker,
You are partly right about automation and its effects, but totally wrong about globalism and how it has effected jobs. It, along with the breakdown of the family and the rise of daddy government have led to the decrease in wages. And those three are very intertwined.

It will be a long time before the diesel mechanics are replaced. The truck drivers somewhat quicker & only in part, but I wouldn't right them off just yet. How many times in the last week has your desktop acted up? laptop? smart phone? Add up all three and in my house that is easily double digits in just the last week. And those items are not out in the weather or treated roughly. It is largely people who sit in offices in cities, who do not work in snow, -20, rain, dust and 110 weather that make these great predictions. They don't work in the real world. And they very certainly don't see the effect of 20 tons going 60mph having an episode in the real world and the damage it will do. It will only take a few of those episodes and the liability involved and it will be awhile before drivers are not at least involved.

And you've never worked on a machine if you think a robot can do it. Won't happen.

1/22/17       #11: Hatin ...
Cabmaker

FamilyMan,

Globalism has improved everybody's standard of living. The world has fewer people living in poverty today than before globalism.

Globalism is all about comparative advantage. There is a reason you don't kiln dry your own lumber. It's the same reason Donald Trump has his neckties made in China and Ivanka Trump's purses made in Viet Nam. Simple comparative advantage.

Those diesel mechanics are dependent on truck drivers who are dependent on crops that need to have a market. America is the number one source of groceries for Mexico. A lot of farmers in Eastern Washington and apple growers in Wenatchee are dependent on the Chinese for a market to sell their crops. None of these crops will need a truck to haul them to market if instead these countries start buying their groceries from Australia and Argentina instead.

Cabinetmakers in the Okanogan are dependent on people from Seattle to buy weekend cabins, drive over the pass and spread their money around.

These Seattleites are dependent on a healthy Boeing Airplane Company. Boeing workers are dependent on China for a projected 8,700 airliners over the next 20 years. This is roughly 435 large airplanes per year, 36 per month. Just like Australia is perfectly happy to become the world's bread basket so too would Airbus like to become the world's airplane maker.

The world is dependent on a balance of power between the United States, China & Russia. Our allies are dependent on China doing business with the United States. We are dependent on our allies to keep ISIS out of our neighborhoods.

The world is a very connected place.
I'm not sure how family values fits into this dialog.

1/22/17       #12: Hatin ...
Pat Gilbert

The fact is that jobs in cabinetmaking are projected to shrink 1% over the next 7 years, according to the BLS, as a comparison electricians are projected to grow by 15%

The important thing in this business is to find a niche.

Skip comparing yourself to Family Man is similiar to comparing apples to oranges.

Kitchens and woodworking again is apples and oranges.

Manufacturing by definition is about using machinery.

Machinery whether it is CNC or robotics will win the race to the bottom, BTW the entire economy is a race to the bottom.

The people who will succeed in the future will have a college education (in a field that has demand) or in a trade ( in a field that has demand).

The question is do you want to be a woodworker or a businessman?

If the former find a niche if the latter get the F out of woodworking.

As I have said a million times the construction industry is going to boom. If you can find a niche you might do very well.

I don't hide behind a pseudonym, which gives a modicum of truth to what I say.

1/22/17       #13: Hatin ...
Family Man

CM,
The reason there are so many apple orchards in NCW is because there is a market globally. If there was not as big of a market, they would grow something else. The land and water is still there. They might grow the things we now import because now those items would not have as big of a market within our borders.

I agree with you that globalism has brought more people out of poverty worldwide- the problem is it has come at American's expense. Mexico is better off. China is better off. The average American is not.

Yes we can afford more lower and lower quality trinkets. But the quality of life, along with the average wage is much lower- statistics prove both even if your eyes do not. Most American's eyes agree with the stats though sir.

Family formations comes into this because we have become either two parent breadwinner families or single parent breadwinner families with daddy government's subsidies as women have entered the workforce en mass driving down the hourly wage because the supply of labor is so great (not to mention the illegals).

Just as Americans would pick apples if the welfare checks stop showing up and relearn their work ethic, so will the American learn a new skill and trade in the new national economy. Yes, there will be pain in the transition and maybe their trinket will cost more and be able to buy a few less (but who says we don't need to buy a few less anyway)- but it will cost more because their neighbor is making it and making a wage that is liveable instead of a chinese person making 50 cents an hour doing it.

Boeing will shrink drastically. So will Microsoft. So will the banks (thank God!). But the small business, the small guy will do better. Bill Gates will still be rich, though drastically less. But Billy Bob will have a job- it will still be hard, back breaking work but he will have a job that he can look himself in the mirror at night and have respect from his fellow man. Instead of making $10 an hour being a cashier or holding a flag will someone else drives a stupid looking forklift down an isle that is blockaded off from knuckleheads- in other words instead of being an easily replaceable cog in the rich man's global machine where the small man does not have the capital or the congressman in his pocket to play- he can be a big man again because the swimming pool just became a lot smaller.

There will be no less people in the world. Their will still be no less mouths to feed, crops to grow. Airplanes will still be needed- they'll just have to be made more locally or pay the tariff. The big businesses will suffer, but the average man & woman will be better for it.

Smaller is better, both in government and business- where the people have the power and freedom and not the government and large corporations. Back in a world where they need us & to keep on our good side and not the other way around.

Mexico will have to worry about Mexicans. China about chinamen. America First.

1/22/17       #14: Hatin ...
Pat Gilbert

Cabmaker/Tim has it right about comparative advantage. It has been the very reason the world's economy has grown.

The average American is better off, see the pic below regarding median income. These are the stats.

Boeing is not going to shrink, good thing too, as that indicates that the world can afford to travel.

Big business is NOT a problem. The only time they become a problem is when they use government to monopolize/lobby for monopoly as they then are cheating the consumer by not producing the most competitive products possible.


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1/23/17       #15: Hatin ...
Family Man

http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2014/10/Wage_stagnation.
png

As above shows the wages of average Americans have not moved in decades when adjusting for inflation. And these figures do not drop the 1% from their averaging, which have gotten much, much richer skewing the results making it even worse.

My father made more as a diesel mechanic the year I was born, 1978, than most make now and that's before adjusting for inflation.

There are more Americans on food stamps, welfare and out of the work force then ever. If you boys ever got out of the city you'd see these things. What is working for the few, is devastating the many-even many who do not understand it and are fighting against the very things that would help them, especially in the long run.

Big business is very much a problem, second only to big government.

1/23/17       #16: Hatin ...
cabmaker

FamilyMan,

Exactly what foods do we now import that could be grown in Wenatchee orchards when the apple market goes away? How would they even irrigate those crops without the big bad daddy government subsidy?

You are right, however, that life without globalism "will still be hard, back breaking work" but this is because without a global supply chain we're all going to have to push a wheelbarrow back and forth to the co-op. Without the contribution of Mexico, Canada, Viet Nam, China and Japan there aren't going to be any cars. There aren't going to be any computers to opine about this with.

I would guess that 51% of America's population would disagree with you that women in the labor force are the cause of our decreased standard of living. I think it has more to do with not paying attention in school.

1/23/17       #17: Hatin ...
Family Man

Within my county alone we grow cherries, pears, wheat of many varieties, mustard, canola, corn, most every vegetable, raise cattle, sheep, goats, chickens and don't forget enough Mary Jane to keep your city high. You'd be amazed what is grown and would be grown in those orchards. Your city will still want to eat and without those global "deals" guess who you are buying from?

And you'd be amazed what us dumb hill billies can do. You know the first bridge across the Columbia river in our region was put in by an orchardist? Pumping water is a really simple thing. I think we will manage just fine.

I think you might be surprised to find what those 51% think CM. Did you know 79% of women dream of being a stay at home wife? Many are waking up and realizing they have been sold a bill of goods. Maybe grandma didn't have it so bad.

1/23/17       #18: Hatin ...
Pat Gilbert

The reality is that the US had a huge advantage over the other industrialized countries because it was the only one that was not destroyed in WW 2.

That was no longer an advantage starting in the early 70s

However this does not mean the the mean standard of living has gone down see the video.

This starting causing hardship on the skills/jobs that could be off shored.

If you look at the unemployment rate of the more highly trained skills they have fared better. See the chart.

To the point more education (in a field in demand) equals more money. The other option is a trade. If you are in the cabinet business machinery is the answer.

The days in the past where you could get by without the above are gone.

That being said we do have 4.6% unemployment with 165 million people employed and increasing mean income.

Another factor that I have gone over ad nauseum is demographics.

The chart below shows that the drop in the population after 2007, which is no coincidence that this happened at the same time as the crash, is the major driving force in the economy.


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The middle class wage stagnation myth

1/23/17       #19: Hatin ...
Joel

Allowing foreign competition to destroy this country is defenseless and senseless. Some foreign competition is a good thing. See auto industry. Allowing them to all be better of at our GREAT expense is suicidal. These things have real consequences. Take me. I worked so hard for so long for so little I lost it. Now I am on the public dole. I would love to get off as I have all these skills but why would I spend my whole week working on someones nice home when I can't even afford a modest one for myself? In CT that means $25 plus. That seems kinda like a slave who has it good. All set.
I just hate to see an industry I could be successful in be so crappy.

1/23/17       #20: Hatin ...
cabmaker

Joel,

It could be worse.
You could also be living in the country.

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/healthier-to-live-in-the
-country-not-really/

Country Living Report

1/23/17       #21: Hatin ...
David R Sochar Member

Nice rant, Joel

Let's break up this endless debate of things we know, things we don't know, etc and get back to the OP with his problem/rant.

You will get a lot of shared sympathy here since our chosen and beloved industry is still in the 1920's when it comes to organization and self promotion. While you and I may conduct ourselves as professionals, most of our customers and all our potential customers are not so sure. Indeed, if you walk into a plastic lam shop with your hand planes, mortise chisels and spokeshave, you will be treated worse for it. We gladly trip each other and belittle our coworkers, but that makes it harder for all of us to rise as a whole. We are our own worst enemies.

Everyone has their own story, but I can say that after 45 years as a professional, my little shop is doing the finest work in the area. We keep raising prices ($100 per man hour currently) and we still have 3 months lead time. The two of us produce about 380K per year - and we will see more this year, with a little luck. We get what we charge, have no deadbeats, have never used contracts or lawyers. We work in the country in a great small shop with lots of windows for the long views of the countryside, good heat and AC, and work with fine hardwoods and we even use hand planes and chisels almost daily. We choose what we want to do, how we want to do it, and do not work off site or do any finishing. This is exactly the way we want it.

My one employee has become one of the finest woodworkers I have ever worked with, and we enjoy putting our heads together to see what we come up with. We experiment a bit, play a bit, and produce a helluva lot. My employee is more of a peer, a partner, than anything, equal to my skills and a real joy of a man to spend my day with. Everyday, I stop and realize how fortunate I am.

We do sweat bullets every now and then, but it is mostly to meet our own demanding standards. We are our own worst enemies, again. But we make a decent wage, comfortable middle class, with some time off and such. And we have job satisfaction that is truly off the charts.

Should you have to wait 40 years to achieve this? Most will not last that long. I am stubborn - among other things. I worked in some terrible situations to learn a few things. Hell, I even had to fire a guy for being funny (Skip - was that you?). I walked out of running that 20 man shop to my little shop that was 90% complete as a hobby shop. Next day my wife withdrew some savings and we went machinery shopping. Phone was ringing while we were gone, and I have been busy ever since.

The first years were very lean since I lacked the self confidence to charge what I should have - what the work was worth - but I gradually built the pricing up and the quality was always better than expected. The reputation soon followed. Never have advertised more than answering the phone. Took down the website due to all the tire kickers. During the last growth period, a shop of 6 benchmen was shipping work from the Hamptons to San Diego at 1.2m per year sales. But that was short lived, thanks to the banks.

We do a mix of architectural work and some furniture and a few 'cabinets' - by cabinets, I mean old school - solid wood, matched veneers for backs and door. While typing this, I got a request for 18 dining chairs to go with a 14' table we will deliver this week.

A friend was once the premier period furniture guy in the US and was busy as can be and very well known in the late 80's and early 90's. He then taught, and now he has a position doing period research that keeps him in the shop, but not dependent upon customers. He got what he wanted with the period work, but then it changed to what he does now, and he loves it. I'm not sure how long one wants to stay on top if I look around. But I can easily - happily - do what I do until I drop.

How will you do it? I don't know, but I suggest you formulate your dream position, and then find a few things to do to lead you there, keeping your eye on the eventual goal all the time. Nothing wrong with eating beans as long as there is a better thing in the future. Build and maintain your self respect and your confidence without becoming cocky. We have a rule that we can be cocky and tell each other how good (or bad) we are, but it never leaves the shop. Out there, we are just humble woodworkers, glad for the work, polite, professional and on our way. Anything you do should be in that profesional context - reading, vacations, friends, etc. I live in a world of wood, and I like it a lot.

Also, keep posting here on Woodweb. You are not unique in your frustration, and you are not alone. You'll get more sympathy here than anywhere else since we all know.

1/23/17       #22: Hatin ...
cabmaker

On a cheerier note:


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1/23/17       #23: Hatin ...
Pat Gilbert

Excellent post and excellent point David

I would love to see a picture of that table.

Joel

Trade is what has driven the standard of living of the world since time began.

At the end of the day we create our own reality through trade.

Cabmaker that comic is a quote from John Maynard Keynes.

1/23/17       #24: Hatin ...
David R Sochar Member

Apologies to Keynes, I think the Buddha's first teachings are that all life is pain. One of the pillars of Buddhism.

The table should be delivered this week.


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1/23/17       #25: Hatin ...
Pat Gilbert

Thanks David, beautiful work.

Do you do the veneer layup? How thick is the Top?

Keynes said: "in the long run we are all dead."

Keynesian economics is useless economics BTW, of which you would say all economics is useless...

1/23/17       #26: Hatin ...
Pat Gilbert

There is an economic law called Say's Law that states all demand is created by production.

This is contrary to the popular myth that demand just exists.

You David are a great example of Say's Law. Which is apt to Joel's point.

1/23/17       #27: Hatin ...
David R Sochar Member

Thanks for the nice comments.

We lay up our own veneers. No one cares about our work as much as we do. The top is 3/4" with a B grade 1/16" Walnut on the underside. All the faces are cross banded - again with 1/16th B grade. We also make a fairly extensive framework underneath to carry the MDF core. This framework anchors the extension slides, the two pedestals and the drop down center leg. The 3rd leg drops automatically when opened far enough.

Economics and economics are mostly useless, unless they would like some really nice woodwork! Then I am all ears.

While the macro is interesting and probably is relevant in some realities, the micro is much more relevant to me and Joel and then rest of us. Not to be selfish or arrogant, but I am just one person in a two man shop. It doesn't take a huge plan or an understanding of globalization to keep our body and soul together. That is all that matters to us.

1/23/17       #28: Hatin ...
Pat Gilbert

This is an 18' table I made a couple of weeks ago.

Not trying to convince anyone, however this concept is very useful.

Say's Law is micro economics.


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1/23/17       #29: Hatin ...
Paul Downs

OK, folks, here is what one woodworker took home over the 28 years. I don't call myself much of a business man, as I'm sure that others could have wrung more profit out of my operation, but I'm still here. It IS possible to make a decent wage in this game, although it isn't easy. I did it by lucking into a niche and then working on getting more efficient. And I had a lot of luck in my journey from single man shop to where I am today.

This is a slide from the talk I gave at AWFS 2015 in Vegas. I'm going to do an update this year.


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1/24/17       #30: Hatin ...
Agree

Joel,

I tend to agree with everything you have said. I have given up on building cabinetry, but my issues are mostly with local shops who are willing to build cabinets with no profit margin.

In smaller, rural communities I would imagine this is a problem for many of us.

I have moved back into remodels and typically buy the cabinets, because that is the price that local citizens think cabinets should cost.

I'm on a 2 year plan to move closer to a major city with real jobs and a real economy. That may allow me to go back into cabinetry somewhat.

You just have to realize this is probably the worst paying trade there is. We have a ton of competition from big boxes, and also lots of guys who like to do this trade with no appreciation for real life business costs.

If you enjoy working in the trades, find another trade... They all pay better.

1/24/17       #31: Hatin ...
David R Sochar Member

I will plug Paul Downs' book - "Boss Life: Surviving My Own Small Business" as the best example of a typical (?) woodworker's story. He went from a one man custom furniture to a larger, more stable niche company that appears very successful. He'll be the first to wonder how stable it is, but he has a good reputation, and has made a good living, and I think he still enjoys what he does, though it has changed over the years.

Read the book - it is excellent.

The fact is (no alternate facts, please!) that we all travel a similar road, but the path is not plain to see. I think niche work is far better than straight up kitchens as for eliminating the competition. "Anyone can make a kitchen" seems to be the thought with prospective customers, builders, and other alleged cabinetmakers, while the opposite is true for really good cabinetry. Niche work saved Paul Downs, and it has saved my company, as well as others.

1/25/17       #32: Hatin ...
Pat Gilbert

The facts (which may be "alternate facts") as I see them after working in this line of work for 4 decades. Having built and shipped work to almost every state.

The best paying areas of woodworking are connected to marketing. This would be hotel lobbies, retail stores, trade show exhibits, rich peoples houses, conference tables.

The key to success in any business is in the exchange. Apple gave the people more than they were used to, Toyota does the same, Porche does the same.

The key to the above is machinery, you may not need as much in some niches.
But the very definition of a factory is using machinery to facilitate the fabrication of a product.

A key to any business is contacts, people who buy your product. Identifying and promoting/networking to them is the single most important aspect of business.

A key part of exchange is treating people with respect and being friendly.

I got interested in economics through someone on the WoodWeb who very successfully sold kitchens, he no longer is in the kitchen business. The thing I found interesting was how things work the way they do in the economy.

The current slump in construction is going to change big time in the coming years. Because of the large group of young people coming into the home buying age. This is going to happen, not my opinion.

I don't know if this bodes well for the cabinet shop. Things always change after a slump so the growth comes in new ways. Toll Brothers and K & B homes are investing in building factories that build homes, this may be the future in home building. This would hurt most of the trades.

The bureau of labor statistics projects 15% growth for electricians in the next 7 years. They project a negative growth of 1.5% for cabinetmakers in the same time frame.

In my experience I have yet to see an electrical contractor go out of business and I have yet to see a cabinet shop that didn't go out of business. The overhead in a down market appears to be the back breaker.

The ones that seem to be doing ok are the big dogs doing big jobs, mostly IMO because of low interest rates, and the guys doing high end residential are also seem to be doing well.

I would say your odds of duplicating what David or Paul are doing is low.

Whatever you do work hard at it and become good at it. As Mike Rowe says don't look for your passion look for opportunity and bring your passion/enthusiasm with you.

1/25/17       #33: Hatin ...
cabmaker

Pat,

You are right that there are a large group of young people coming into the home-buying age but this doesn't necessarily mean there will be homes available for them to buy.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Fannie Mae just agreed to insure the debt for rental home purchases by BlackStone Inc. It used to be they would only insure mortgages on owner-occupied real estate.

With this agreement there is now no risk for investors who want to buy rental homes. The amount of capital flowing to this niche will soon overtake the residential market. If you have a house for sale they will write you a check this afternoon and throw in some extra money if you can be out by 5pm.

It will take just one generation of home owners to completely deed residential ownership to Wall Street.

1/25/17       #34: Hatin ...
Pat Gilbert

Yeah well there is always the chicken little narrative. But think about it, this country has a GDP of 20 trillion dollars per year, there are 165 million people employed with 4.6 unemployment. You can go on and on about the chicken little scenario all you want, but but you lock yourself in by coloring your viewpoint with this.

There are going to be some real opportunities after 10 years of construction paucity, put down the chicken little story and pick up the Horatio Alger's story.

They may both be wrong but it is more fun to read the Horatio Alger story.

Let's go with this narrative?

1/26/17       #35: Hatin ...
cabmaker

Pat,

Just because this is a bleak outlook does not necessarily make it a "chicken little" scenario. That same WSJ article indicated that according to US Census Bureau data "the home ownership rate reached it's lowest level in at least 50 years".

The story about Wall Street creating REITs to buy residential rental properties may just a be another data point but it is part of a trend in data points. Home ownership is becoming more and more an unattainable achievement for more and more people in our country. Our children certainly do not have the opportunity to own the house they live in that we had when we were their age.

You don't have to actually be Nostradamus to interpret this information.
Wall Street has successfully lobbied the government to remove risk from their portfolios. As such more and more capital will find its way into these portfolios because when the risk disappears the ROI increases.

The only reason people invest in these REITs is to receive a return on their investment. Renters aren't as sentimental about new kitchens as homeowners are. Since they don't own the property renters would rather have lower quality cabinets from China than increased rents associated with nicer kitchens from Woodweb guys.

1/26/17       #36: Hatin ...
Pat Gilbert

I will make this short as this is hijacking the thread which was not my intent.

Younger people rent, people don't buy until they start families. Since the millennials are taking longer to move into this phase, the homes sales are at historic low as you indicate.

This chart indicates the change to single family from multifamily.

Anything beyond this fact is minor.


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1/26/17       #37: Hatin ...
Pete D

Joel,

Find your niche and get after it. Since you're quite possibly the only person making goo gaws you'd have a head start there. Create the demand. Start the worlds first goo gaw blog, make people feel like they need a goo gaw and how ownership will increase their quality of life. There's lots of people selling "woodwork and craftsmanship" so you need to differentiate and stand out, focus the marketing on a way of life. As you take the market by storm capitalize on the wave and write a book "How the goo gaw saved me from corporate exile", roll out new products like "the children's goo gaw" or "goo gaws for pets". The possibilities are endless.

Above all else make sure you take care of yourself...as in be confident in your skills, use the forum's expertise to fill in any voids you're less experienced with and charge accordingly so you can work your way out of the apt you can't afford to paint. If you really feel stuck in a dead end, scraping to get by, don't feel beholden to woodworking, look into other options.

1/26/17       #38: Hatin ...
Larry

This is one that I totally agree with, Pat's line "A key to any business is contacts, people who buy your product. Identifying and promoting/networking to them is the single most important aspect of business."
Get known. Might be hard to do starting out, but you have to make the effort. I've never been particularly good @ it but by default because I've been at it so long I have gotten some recognition. Still there are contractors in my town that don't know I exist. You have no opportunity to get their work if they don't know you exist! Get out there and be seen. Look for an under filled niche. Most likely you will find it by accident. Gota look though.

1/26/17       #39: Hatin ...
Alan F.

We can make a good living in this industry.

1) We Need constant sales, so always be bidding /quoting.

2) We need constant production to keep a stable workforce so see #1.

3) We need systems and methods

4) we need to be able to collect and get paid so when working on #1, stay away from those that can't or don't pay or charge them more

5) the lower the risk, the tighter the price, can be, the higher risk, the higher the price needs to be.

.

Find your niche and make a profit, if you are beating you head against the wall competing against x, then find a different market.

Sell what you want to make or get paid enough to make what someone else wants you to make.

make sales. every day.

1/28/17       #40: Hatin ...
Joel Member

I actually found a niche. Buying tools and equipment, especially chainsaws, and fixing for re-sale. It works and I usually find it enjoyable. If your from CT don't read this! Kidding..Sorry for hatin but I think it needed to be said.

1/28/17       #41: Hatin ...
Joel Member

Sorry for hatin forget about the needed to be said.

2/1/17       #42: Hatin ...
KMAG YOYO Member

Joel, I feel your pain. Nobody tells you when you get into the trade that woodworking is a horrible way to make a living. I have 14 years in the industry and I even in the hottest remodeling market in the country (world?) I can't make a decent living, either working for others or with my own business. Make your money elsewhere, and do your woodworking as a hobby. At least then you get to keep all the beautiful things you make.

It seems you have already come to that conclusion, and you have found a smart niche that can run out of a garage. Stay small and lean, overhead kills!


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