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China Trade War & US Lumber Companies

10/20/19       
Steve  Member

Website: https://www.commercialforestproducts.com/roasted-m...

A few days ago I was interviewed by a UPI reporter for a story on how the tariff war with China has impacted the US hardwood lumber industry (spoiler alert...it's not good).

It got syndicated and picked up by a few entities including Breitbart.

I have mixed feelings - It's cool to get some national exposure but the subject is kind of a drag :/

I know not everyone is a Breitbart News fan but this is article is pretty apolitical, IMO. I'm quoted at the bottom, just after New Hampshire Congresswoman Annie Kuster.

US Hardwood Industry Disintegrates....

10/21/19       #2: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
TonyF

If the facts are accurate, then whether or not you are a "fan" of the publication is irrelevant.

Quoting from the article with reference to China using suppliers other than the US.

“Once [buyers] have those sources of hardwoods, they will be awfully hard to get back.”

This is a fundamental tenet of a continuing business, as anyone on this forum who has lost a major customer can testify to. The work does not dry up, only your participation in the work does, with your participation being taken on by someone else.

I'm not sure what the positive takeaway of the trade war will be, if any, and if it will offset the economic damage being done now. At present, the US does not appear to benefitting from the game of "tariff chicken", even if it does not blink first.

There is always someone else willing to step in and relieve you of your customers.

Business 101.

TonyF

10/21/19       #3: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
Pat Gilbert

Tariffs are a tax on the American consumer, period.

The Chinese will not do anything until the election is nearing.

OTOH Trump is holding all the cards on this, not that he is right

10/22/19       #4: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
Glen

Maybe it would have been better to whine about this before our leaders gave away all of our industrial manufacturing and millions of jobs. At this point what does it matter? I hope they tarriff the crap out of Chinese furniture.

10/22/19       #5: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
Pat Gilbert

That's not how economics work


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10/22/19       #6: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
MarkB Member

Your comparative advantage only works when people are on a semi-level playing field. There is simply no way anyone can compete with zero or "fuzzy" labor, environmental, licensing and taxation, regs.

The constant notion that we are living in the times where the consumer sets the tone for the market are delusional. Marketing department and corporate interests define the "menu" that will be offered to the US consumer. If they want ham but ham isnt on the menu, thats tough, they will have to pick from the offering presented which is comprised exclusively from the items that pull the most corporate profit.

Its not only the chinese that should be thumped for being poor stewards of their workforce, environment, and economy, but the US corporations and marketeers who have consciously and concisely re-shaped the average consumer mindset knowingly shafting their own country down the tubes (its pretty much treasonous) are also the ones who need to be thumped.

We live in a nation of retail outlets serving up utter junk while reaping millions as they hold their finger on the flush handle of the U.S.. They, and the banks, should be held accountable but we all know no one will be, that has played itself out several times in my short life.

10/22/19       #7: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
Gary

I think we really need to see some charts and graphs on this to really make sense of it an prove a point. The more the better.

10/22/19       #8: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
rich c.

Gave away the jobs? American companies could not build or buy Chinese factories fast enough to get the cheap labor back then. I worked at Caterpillar, they threw barrels of money in China to build product there. Copied from a Wall Street Journal article in 2013; Caterpillar, known for bulldozers, excavators and wheel loaders, will have to write off about $580 million over alleged accounting misconduct at a Chinese maker of mine-safety equipment it bought in June. The WSJ's James T. Areddy talks about what this means for the big U.S. industrial company.Jan 21, 2013

10/22/19       #9: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
Pat Gilbert

The myth that will not die...

What is the unemployment rate right now?

Who would do this work if it was not being done in China?

10/22/19       #10: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
TonyF

Pat Gilbert:

A job, or a unit of employment, is basically a high abstract term that is not officially defined. So it is difficult, using anyone's numbers, to determine the quality of jobs whereby the unemployment rate is as low as it is.

Is a "job" an employment situation where you work a 40 hour week, earn a wage that will support a family, allow you to have paid benefits and some level of healthcare?

Or is a "job" something you have to work two of, with no benefits, in order to earn a wage that is just above the poverty line?

If the "jobs" being done in China and elsewhere returned, and paid a living wage, I don't think the positions would be vacant for very long.

But since most corporations seem to feel that shareholder value is more important than anything else, the work will continue seek out its least expensive performer and location.

TonyF

10/23/19       #11: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
Pat Gilbert

Most of the people working two jobs these days are people with degrees, not the usual minimum wage workers picture that is thrown out there.

I have charts for that (8^l)

Unemployed are people who are out of work, not too complex.

Household income has been rising since 2009

Anyway if you want to buy into the doom and gloom go right ahead, but there are NO FACTS to back up your claim.

10/23/19       #12: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
TonyF

Pat Gilbert:

No need to go to your chart subscription service to pull up semi-supporting data. :^)

I'm not making any claim, only questioning the quality of the jobs that account for near full employment. There should be a chart that lists the annual wages of the jobs created for a particular area (not the average), and perhaps people can look at that and determine if they can survive economically on that income, and as such if it is in fact a "job".

A "job" that is "created" is not necessarily like your job, or like mine was. Yes, not all jobs pay that well, but a 3.5% unemployment rate where most of the jobs are substandard is illusionary at best.

Data that is averaged out is easily manulipulated in either direction. No gloom and doom, just questioning, as I always have, data that is presented in support of any conclusion.

TonyF

10/23/19       #13: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
MarkB Member

Regardless of the regional annual or average numbers the simple fact of the matter is the vast majority of day to day jobs for the average individual have vaporized in the last 30 years. They are either working at lowes, home depot, the auto parts counter, gig economy, or they are in stem/tech world. The "middle" of merica' barely exists anymore due to corporate/shareholder fleecing/flushing of the United States of _A_merica.

The employment numbers are such a fungible number they are ludicrous to even site. 5 individuals can paint 19 different pictures from the same "data".

All you have to do is go out in your community and get away from your screen, ask questions, rub some elbows. The pansies and petunias that are being whispered up your backside are not leaving such a pleasant odor in the noses of those out there grinding out their daily existence.

10/23/19       #14: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
rich c.

MarkB, If by average job, you mean unskilled high school graduate, or GED?Yes those jobs are dried up. But those jobs would have been gone anyway. If not gone because of cheap labor in a world economy, then gone because of robotics or even computers. I see young people that don't have the skills to push a picture of a hamburger and give me the correct change. Those people are having a very rough time. That's not the fault of the Chinese, that's the fault of our education system that is still training people to be factory workers. A career that no longer exists. The unskilled worker of the 50s and 60s who walked into a factory and was trained and made a good living with benefits for 30-40 years is gone for sure. But I'm of the opinion that anyone with an interest in making a living can.

10/24/19       #15: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
Pat Gilbert

The middle class is disappearing because they are becoming richer.

The economy is different the old rules don't apply anymore.

The US is now a service economy.

Manufacturing is slightly less than China's but don't employee as many people, like the cabinet industry for example.

Yous aren't hearing me, you will not find any facts that prove your thesis'

10/24/19       #16: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
MarkB Member

You cant find any facts because the regurgitation your regurgitating is "data" that is play-doh'd into whatever is needed to keep you numb, dumb, and in-debt. Thats the way the system works. Its the same reason there are record auto loan defaults and people behind payments in this "richer" middle class. Ive been tooting that horn for 30 years. Today you have a $100 cell phone bill (if your lucky), car payment, $200 satellite TV/internet bundle, rent/mortgage, utilities, dine out more than cook on the stove, and so on. Granted people have made themselves broke. The answer, as with everything, is to you blame the addict, or the dealer, or both. Our system makes the crack dealer on the corner of an urban city street seem like St. Peter and fortunately for the system the masses are weak to resist.

30 year's in this industry and spending months, if not years, in some peoples home being the somewhat invisible crew thats there every day working on their home and just becomes completely invisible give you a very interesting behind the scenes perspective. Its a fascinating social experiment actually. And its real. Not some conjured up, filtered, biased data/graph disseminated to you from some individual with their own agenda (which is most generally the one that will make them more money).

I dont disagree that the 40 hour a week factory job with the gold watch is long gone. But the days of someone coming into any craft, trade, job, and being trained (if they choose to persevere) are not. I agree that the percentage of young people who will ever persevere due to a piss poor parenting and educational system is far lower than it ever has been.

None the less. The aftermath of it all, to me at least, lays at the feet of extremely masterful marketing. Its apparent in this industry perhaps as much if not more than most any other.

Again, you can blame the addict, or you can blame the dealer, or both. I am probably a 70/30 and climbing.. in favor of blaming the dealer.

11/8/19       #17: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
Redneck

While it all is subjective, the fact of the matter is that all jobs and wealth are created from two primary industries, mining and agriculture. Socialist, communist, totalitarian propounded views on economy are just b.s.!

Look at Woodweb. All of the marketing wealth, I have no problem with marketing btw, is derived from those two basic industries. The computer you are using was built from components derived from those two primary industries. The buildings you build cabinets etc, to be installed in, are derived from those two basic industries.

Wealth/jobs are not created by goberment policy, ... those only stifle such, as long as you don't agress or infringe on your fellow man or his rights... do what you have to do to survive and prosper.

11/9/19       #18: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
Pat Gilbert

That is bad news for the US that has become a service economy.

But things seem to be going pretty well.

11/9/19       #19: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
rich c.

Doing pretty good, SHORT TERM! Any kind of long range planning is desperately needed. I understand places like Miami are finally planning on what to do when areas go underwater from ocean level changes. But a typical response of fixing the result, not the cause. Very similar to today's medical industry.

12/17/19       #22: China Trade War & US Lumber Com ...
sanchezz3 Member

Financing of the forestry business can be a huge problem for any logger company.


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