Without getting lost in dead end political name calling, what is going on with this virus stuff?
Some people appear to be paralyzed with fear, some seem to laugh it off as a political move, some know a whole lot, and some know nothing about it.
I avoid most people as a matter of course. A handy predilection since it now matters to keep your distance. For me, it could be life or death since I am in the high risk group. I now plan on not engaging any live humans except at a distance.
I am thinking of the bell curve, not for infection rates, but for belief in infections, if you will. Where is the 'fat' of the bell? Who is at the thin ends of the curve, and why?
NPR has some good reporting, everyone else is inaccurate, breathless, don't care, care to much, or just runs gov't power show over and over. They are wrong more than they are right.
The death toll in the US may not be worse than a bad year of the seasonal flu in a 3 month span as opposed to a 12 month span.
I cant see any way possible that covid is going to kill 20,000 US citizens with 136 of them being children. (the flu)
The problem as always is the uncertainty.
The effect on the economy is going to be catastrophic. The flu doesn't close restaurants and business. It doesn't effect supply chains.
Im finding the drama of the mainstream and cable news to be extremely nauseating as Im sure most are. Foolish dramatic unrealistic questions posed to officials who are damned if they do and damned if they dont with an answer.
I would completely agree, NPR has some of the most calm, unbiased, and fact based coverage.
I am very concerned that virtually no small business is going to be able to weather 2 months of down time (if thats all it is). I am thankful to have plenty of work and after a couple of lean years be in an uber low overhead situation that we may be able to hang on.
My blind optimism is that the thing peters out and blows over in a month. But several of my customers are schools and health care facilities and they are all speaking to mid/late summer.
Advantage of being a sole proprietor single guy is I'm isolated. Wife works from home and my youngest (22 yo) is still in college and since that's closed he's now isolated too.
I called up my main supplier and their people don't plan on closing down unless the FED forces them to.
I think it's a big overreaction. It seems to be much easier to transmit to others, yes. But for the most part I'll bet that the mortality rate will be similar if maybe a little higher than the normal flu. The govt is basically destroying the economy over this. From what I've seen in reports the average age of people who have succumbed to this is 81. So far they've said children 10 and under don't seem to be affected. Up to about 50 yo the chance of death is less than .4% and as the age goes up so does the percentage, mostly due to compromised systems that tend to happen as you age.
The outrageous claims of some saying millions will die from this is scare tactics.
The biggest problem I see is that they haven't figured out exactly how it is transmitted from person to person. I've heard touching, airborne, surface contact. That it can't hang in the air, then all of a sudden they say it can hang out for 3 hours. One of the consistent things they have said is 3hrs on smooth surfaces like glass and metal.
I won't get into the political side of it because I think there is a big area of mistrust towards governments (around the world).
I think your position is overwhelmingly the norm. The problem is the metrics if just left to run their course could be disastrous (may be a better option).
Ive long had a philosophy that the fish tank needs a good purge once in a while. In this scenario that means a lot of people are going to hav eto sya goodbye to their 70+ parents and grandparents in a, perhaps, less than pleasant way (not that any way is pleasant).
To sound like a total douche, my concern isnt really the unpleasantry, (my entire family has passed and none of them were pleasant) but the cost to try to save it all on the way down.
To me the transmission and fatality rates when extrapolated out of the course of a year to compare to the average flu would be something I would never wish on anyone.
Well I may get a little political here.
My Draftsman, a 22 yr old college student,a great kid ! I co- signed on his 5K loan so he could do a semester abroad in Rome Italy.
He came back last week, and already has gotten notice that since he's back, payments are due ! It Was a FSA Loan-WTF ?....
I said stay away for 2 weeks before you can come back to work, Yes -I am emailing him plans to work remotely.
Big Biz Get Bailouts... Small Biz gets loans we have to pay back...
I am an "Essential Worker" ! If I don't work -my family doesn't get health insurance !....To pay for those tests !
So-When our Illustrious leader today said he gives himself a 10! for what's happened so far LOL !
Here's his own 10 I give Him back...
1). It's one BIG HOAX folks
2). it's the same as the flu
3). it will go away on its own like magic
4). it will go away when the weather gets warmer
5). I don't take any responsibility for it
6). leave those 2,500 people on the Cruise Ship from Hawaii about to dock in Oakland, CA to remain out at sea, if I had it my way they would ALL stay on that ship because I don't want them to disembark to receive medical attention which would ADD to the number of Corona Virus cases in the U.S.
7). this will all be over by April (three weeks from today)
8). everyone should continue going to work if they have symptoms, it won't be a problem for anyone
9). we have everything under control no need to worry (new reported cases in the U.S. continues to rise by the hundreds per week.
10). we will have a vaccine soon in just a few days (the medical director of NIH very clearly stated that a Vaccine is far off at least 1 1/2 year at the earliest if not longer.
Mark, when this finally finishes up I think the mortality rate will be in the area of 0.1-0.3%. The way they are measuring it now is stupid. Known cases vs known deaths equals mortality rate. They brought these numbers up before any widespread testing was available. When they start doing 1000s of tests a day the mortality rate is going to plummet.
I don't wish death on anyone. But as it stands a normal flu season in the US is 20-80K deaths. And that's without shutting the country down and destroying the economy.
Serious people are taking this seriously. You think the pro sports leagues just cancel their seasons on a whim? That schools and restaurants all over the country shut down for no reason? The nonsense from the President isn't what's frightening. It's the projections from people who know what they are talking about.
Maybe it will be less terrible than expected. That would be great.
I don't care what anyone thinks. I don't care about people dying. There's about five people on the entire planet I care about.
It doesn't matter what you do, if It wants to spread, it's going to spread. That's going under the very ballsy assumption that it hasn't already.
If this spirals outta control, you're gonna wish they just let the virus burn through the population. If it goes to civil breakdown, a whole lot more people are gonna die from violence and starvation, or accidents involving avoiding the previous two. This place will go Walking Dead sans zombies in hurry.
This whole debacles does put into question whether or not the 1st Amendment is a power the people can handle.
Our shop is four people total. One of my builders uses a couple of shops, one of which is good sized. I called the builder today and told him if the other shop is forced to stop work because of their size, I'll take the jobs and we WILL hammer them out.
I will not let this stupidity kill my company, and if grants me an opportunity, I will take it.
From Phillip K. Dick: "Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away."
Both seem applicable in the current situation. I think that the low numbers are reflective of a diminished capacity to test people, as if to say "We can't test you for it, so you must not have it."
Perhaps the number of confirmed cases will be in direct proportion to the number of test kits available. Sounds like one of Donald Rumsfeld's "unknown knowns". Or maybe one of his "known unknowns".
Two weeks ago, this was a hoax, and it was all Obama's fault. Now, the government encourages "social distancing" and are looking to put forth a trillion dollar bailout. The complete turnaround would be funny if it weren't true.
Like others here, I was social distancing when social distancing wasn't cool, and long before it was a Presidential recommendation. I truly feel bad for those who don't have the situational flexibility or financial resources to endure this dilemna.
Do I think this is a hoax? absolutely not. This is very real, but is it worth tanking the economy over? not a chance.
They keep talking about a nationwide quarantine, what happens to guys like Karl, myself and all the other small shops that can keep our employees going through this? I know my guys rely on that paycheck being there as we all do.
How come Tesla is still operating normally as of yesterday afternoon? Even though Alan said the bay area is shut down for 3 weeks.
Don't get me wrong, I do take this seriously as my parents have compromised immune systems and are at the most risk. We are in the north part of Chicago which increases or odds of exposure anyway. But me at 38 i'm not worried.
But do I think this is a media induced panic frenzy with the election coming up, Absolutely!
A nationwide quarantine would most definitely push us into what Karl describes above.
I apologize for the rant, I'ts just been many years of hard work to get the company at a good place and now the outcome is very uncertain...
In my state of CT we currently have 68 cases and 0 deaths. The front page of my local rag say there are likely thousands of cases in CT, sighting this without evidence. And reading the article they are guestimating there are 6000 cases that have gone undiagnosed.
So what this means to me for the most part is this is very overblown if we have all these cases and no one is dying from it. The overblown estimate of 2-5% mortality is more like .1-.3%, just like the normal flu.
They have destroyed the entire planets economy over this. Over in China there were 3200 deaths out of 1.5 billion people.
The reported numbers are low because no one is tested. The number of infections is almost the same as the number of test kits. Why? Think about it. Without testing, we are blind. Trump told the WHO the US did not need any test kits. He also cut $700M from the CDC budget and closed the fast response office of the CDC that was formed to respond quickly to these threats. He and his gang of buddies have repeatedly misinformed his subjects to the point where confusion is the most prevalent response.
The best science is estimating there are 10 times more cases than now known in US. Today's number is 600, or 6,000. That number will double about every 3 days. In a 10 days, that is over 6 million. The math is where it is scary. Then it doubles again, and again.....
Our leaders are idiots. Our medical community is hamstrung/unprepared (due to the prevailing thought stated in the above posts) and on the verge of being overwhelmed.
120,000 ventilators in the US. 6 million cases will require every one of those ventilators for up to 2 weeks. Zip! We are out of those, and that is when we will have to just let people die because we can't help them. No rooms in the hospitals, so stay home and please wait for the wagon to come by before you bring out the dead.
There will be too many sick people to deal with.
Paul Downs said it best - "Serious people are taking this seriously." Cancel the NCAA???!!! Cancel SXSW??!! Hundreds of millions of dollars lost not by overreacting, but by biting the bullet.
Pat's link is excellent for a big picture, but remember, there is almost no testing being done, so we are only counting about 1 in 10 cases.
By that chart, my 600 cases (from CDC) is way low - J Hopkins has 6,000 cases in the US.
No matter, the exponential growth cannot be argued.
What I keep waiting for is when is a real, global, conversation going to emerge with regards to tradition/ritual/whatever, eating bush meat is at the root of many of these nightmares and needs to come to a quick end. Fruitcakes pecking the skull caps off monkeys anteaters and consuming bats and lord knows what else, in a global economy, needs to get whittled down and fast.
Kansas killed school for the rest of the year. Many small business in my state (West By God, the last state to have a confirmed case) are just closing because the cost to stay open with such reduced revenue is a hemorrhage worse than closing for a period. The conversation has been going on here for a week now that school will not be resumed this school year. And how will those hours be made up?
Ive yet to hear of any health care projects being idled but my guess is in this industry that will be soon to come. We have a heath care facility job going now and anyone entering the building must go through the front, temp check, sit at nurses station, answer questions, be logged in. If anything gets worse I would imagine the other 10 locations slated for renovation will be shelved.
Some other customers are still issuing P.O.'s that are in the retail trade with trade shows in the near future that have all been canceled. I had assumed all those P.O.s would go on hold but not yet.
Yeah, and the guy who thinks this is all a hoax or needs his paycheck for his family or his truck payment just signs it so they can get paid. Then of course the fear is if its found you consciously lied about your exposure or symptoms.....
Regardless of our own opinions of how this is being handled, there is no doubt at this point that business is going to slow down drastically for all of us at some point. For me, I'm booked for about 6 weeks and after that I expect it to dry up completely.
The question in my mind is what to do at that point? I have enough saved to weather a storm for 6 or 8 months. But do I pay my overhead costs? Who is going to evict me if I don't? Do I pay my insurance premiums?
Cash is going to be king. The more effective our government is at "flattening the curve", the longer the economic downturn is going to be.
I'd say your only option is to go into damage control mode immediately and salt away all you can or get ready to apply for the SBA's Economic Injury Disaster Loans. We received the emails with the polls yesterday that the SBA is going to be using to gauge benefits. The hard part is I may have no injury at the moment but I have no idea what 2 weeks, a month, two months, will be like.
Option #3 is to just kiss it up to god and go on, hope it blows over and is nowhere near as bad as it could be.
My gut feeling is the blows over option but I have several markers in my life where I was like "bah.. there is nothing to worry about" and someone sitting next to me said, "dude, your nuts Im getting out of here" and had I sat there thinking they were a bunch of chicken littles things would have gotten real bad, real fast.
I try to find the balance in there somewhere but that idiot invincible 18 year old is still in there somewhere 40+ years later...
Everyone keeps saying we don't really know how many people have it b/c everyone hasn't been tested. So what? Does everyone get tested for the flu every year? You don't think the number of cases of the flu isn't higher every year than those tested for it? I've had what was most likely the flu many times and have never gone to the doctor to get tested or treated for it as I'm sure many other people haven't either. It's highly likely that if I or others contract COVID-19 that the symptoms won't warrant a visit to the doctor for testing.
If you're in the high risk category you should have every right to your social distancing, and there should be charitable programs in place to get necessities to those who would prefer to avoid going into public as a precaution; or maybe just wear nitrile gloves and medical masks when going out like they do in China. On the flip side of that, everyone else should be able to continue going about business as usual with a few well advised sanitary precautions, or not.
We're all going to die one way or another. This one particular way isn't worth shutting down the global economy over. The virus isn't the hoax; the hoax is the blowing out of proportion to cause hysteria by those who would see the economy shut down for political and power gains. And so what if the NBA shut down it's season or schools closed down? Monkey see, monkey do(toilet paper, Hello?); no one want's to be seen as the bad guy who didn't heed the dire warnings if this really does turn out to be the Black Death of the 21st century; which is highly unlikely according to facts from CDC website. I'm good with being that guy. What good is all the precaution going to do when you're sitting around a campfire by the river in a loincloth trying to catch your dinner or standing in a breadline with your hand out?
Too much normalcy bias in the States. States very soon to be like Italy. If you are running around without a mask and goggles then you are asking to get it. It is airborne. To say that you do not care about people dying...you need mental help.
2008-09 best case outcome (25% chance my opinion)
1929-39 most likely (50% chance my opinion)
a complete global monetary reset. It will be sold as a jubilee but will end up being a one world global currency prison (25% chance my opinion)
The dominoes are days from falling beyond a point they can be tipped back up. There is simply way to much debt at every level- government, corporate, private and especially at the leveraged speculative level.
Anyone that lives in the world today should have enough basic science to understand the spread of disease. Whether public water well, sneezing or mosquito, disease transmission is a fact of life and also a regulator of life.
Yes, everyone must die, but is it OK for the instrument of death to be a fast food wrapper? Or failed response by the government? None of us wants to die this way, nor do any of us 'deserve' death by Corona. Since blame is a large part of the epidemiology of outbreaks, it gets confused with cause, effect, and reason. Toss in a little religion ("Pray it away" Pence!), and truth is gone and confusion reigns.
Steven's response is typical. He doesn't have it, doesn't plan on getting it, so he has no reason to change his behavior. The 2 week incubation delay rules out that logic.
There is no way (short of testing) that Steven knows if he is infected today. Infected today, not feeling too bad, certainly will still go to work, he could infect hundreds first generation, thousands by the third generation and millions by the fifth generation.
So, modifying Steven's behavior becomes a moral point. Not religion, but the morality of not doing enough (anything) to curb the spread cannot be questioned. He does not get to devalue other people's lives in order that his own not be curtailed in any way.
Americans are not known for logical thought, and it really shows in a conversation about the spread of a pandemic. The virus, as small as it is, behaves in a very controlled way, yet can affect a whole planet. Hell, it might even do what the Democrats could not do - defeat Trump.
Sorry door shop guy, (while I do appreciate your virtue signaling), I wasn't given much in the line of compassion. I'm too analytical.
The reason I don't care? According to seven seconds of google searching there is about 7.8 billion people on this planet. That's more than enough. As I said, there's about 5 people out of that 7,800,000,000 that I genuinely care about. Maybe another 10 that I would be concerned about. If all but that 15 blinked out of existence, I couldn't care less. Give me my dog and I'll just spend my remaining life walking and living hunter gatherer style. Probably happier, and likely healthier.
What this virus lacks, is perspective.
-The seasonal strain of the flu kills 650,000 people globally each year.
-Mosquitos kill about 700,000 people per year. (the earth's most dangerous animal)
-Conflicts and battle take roughly 125,000 per year.
-Automobile accidents account for about 1.2m per year.
So wheres all the hand wringing over those few things?
One site I looked at said in 2017, 56 million people died globally. I didn't care about that number, and if you're honest with yourself, neither did you.
Here's a fun one in my few minutes of research. The TOP 10 CAUSES of DEATH! Read it like a talk show host, it's more fun that way.
You're not going to live forever, nobody is. I don't really care if I live to be eighty five, or through the next 85 minutes. It's all the same. You are nothing more than a spec of atoms and molecules spinning around on a rock, swirling around in a galaxy made up of billions of solar systems, whizzing through the infinite universe with billions of other galaxies. Nothing you do matters, nothing you accomplish matters, except to you and your maybe 5-15 people who are in the same boat as you.
Now whether I live the next 85 years or 85 minutes, I don't want to spend it shooting people in the face to protect myself and my five people, or to take what they have to feed my five. (I keep hearing Charles Barkley in my head: "Are you in my five?") Because of a complete social breakdown, and that is a real possible reality. Shut the power off, people start getting hungry real fast, and things will get western real fricking fast. Now, that's a far fetched reality, because the advertising whores will need something else to grab your attention in a few weeks, and hopefully, we're back to business as usual.
Humans have existed for roughly 200,000 years. We've had our ass kicked a few times. There's a theory that 12,000 years ago a comet smashed high in the northern hemisphere and killed a good portion of the population. The Toba eruption was about 70,000 years ago, and genetic studies point to the global population was dropped down to between 3,000-10,000 humans total. Total! 1500 years ago the Justinian plague killed between 25-50 million people. The population at that time was approximately 200 million.
Perspective folks. We are our own worst enemy in this.
I dont know that the sole cause for caution is the mortality rate alone. Its the total cost to the system. Medical care, lost wages and production, and so on. While mortality motivates, people (mainly in the US) are motivated by only two things, physical, or financial, pain. Morality usually takes a back seat to greed and want.
On a side note, we got our first batch of emails yesterday that jobs are to be safed-off and critical components completed by months end and they will be idled. These are healthcare jobs understandably looking to limit in-out traffic from trades and deliveries. Mail state that once things have settled work will resume. This will result in facilities with reduced capacity due to renovations being parked in place and of course trades and vendors on hold with what potential for resumption of the project down the road when and if the subs or the GC are still afloat.
I fought some respiratory infection Oct, Nov, and all of Dec. I couldn’t shake it until I started 2 BComplex a day.
I woke up with a butterfly rash on my face a month ago. I know it means Lupus. The pain creeping through my body is unbearable at times . I’m good. I’m fighting with a plant based diet and feeling better daily.
I’m worried for my children. But they are doing very well in school and take no prisoners in allowing social media to control their emotions
I have survived pneumonia 11x in my adult
life. I‘m one of the few that has odds stacked against me
My neighbor just passed yesterday from complications, name or reason not in the obit yet. I pray for the family
Scientists look to the data. The Chinese have a lot to teach us as so do the Koreans.
We lost a nephew to taking his own life. He was one incredible guy, great friend and a Vet. I will miss him His reasoning was interwoven between PTSD, pain, other things and last but not least a nod to the COVID virus. He was a hell of a field medic.
This is a very real problem whether hype or not. My neighbor passing truly brought it home.
I cannot sit idly by so we are cranking up the volume and the staff goes shopping for personal supplies when the grocery trucks get in and we keep on.
You said exactly what I've been thinking. The underlying assumption behind "flattening the curve" is that our society has a responsibility to treat every 80 year old who gets infected. We all need to question that assumption. Because what we are doing now is potentially devastating the lives of millions of young, healthy people in order to treat (not necessarily to save) really old, sick people who may only have another year or two left anyway lying in a nursing home bed.
If we changed our priorities to simply not treat anyone over a certain age (say 75), we could allow the virus to spread as quickly as possible, and our health care system could treat the young people instead who have a serious reaction.
I totally agree that 7.8 billion minus a few million isn't necessarily a bad thing.
You don't know anything about me. I can just as well say that your a tyrant from what you posted. Your attitude is what causes tyranny and oppression on this planet. I'm not devaluing anybody else's life or putting anyone else in danger any more than they're choosing to take a risk and go out in public and keep their businesses open. Have you been to get your test yet? Maybe you have it and have already spread it around. I go to work as a one man shop and I understand the facts and try to use logical and rational thinking, so I haven't gone to visit with my parents or grandparents and keep my distance from others when I do choose to go out.
I just saw the Governor of my state tweet that I and my fellow citizens were irresponsible and he may have to take more drastic measures if we continue in our irresponsible behavior; I'm an adult and don't need you or other tyrants telling me I'm irresponsible and controlling my behavior, which is completely reasonable, at gunpoint. If the coronavirus is a worldwide crisis that warrants invoking the war powers act then say goodbye to any freedoms we had left b/c now anything can be deemed a crisis. Witness the preview of socialism at a grocery store near you.
Now, go outside and make sure no one's out and about, and if they are, make sure you call 911 and rat them out.
Wow, I can’t believe some of the responses I have read in this forum, no wonder the world is such a mess when we have no care for our fellow mankind. This virus doesn’t say hhmmm, you are 74, I think I will wait to find a 75 year old, it finds a host and it spreads, If you don’t isolate, test and track it, it will infect everyone, probably mutate a bunch of times and get worse and kill hundreds of thousands or millions of people and your concerned about your business and the economy. It doesn’t care who you are or what age you are, a majority of younger people so far get mild symptoms and recover, but in China and Italy there are lots of 30 year olds who have also died.
I wish you all the luck. To me, my family, especially my parents, and children and all my friends and their family’s are far more important than chasing the almighty dollar.
As the numbers are not getting drastically worse the hype sure is. The sate wide quarantines are coming, I think CA already started...
Yes, I do agree that some of the priority's by the emergency response my not be the best route but it is what it is. Anybody else on here find it strange that China is running its factories at almost 100% capacity? And the US & Europe are facing mass shortages of supplies? As we go into panic/shutdown China's economy is skyrocketing.
I'm not so worried about the virus, its the criminals who have zero respect for others. Courts are shut down, cops are told to do nothing or issue tickets, and they are letting "non violent" offenders out of jail/prison.
The #1 priority as always is to protect our families. I truly envy you guys that live out in the country in times like this.
Stay safe and healthy everyone! Hopefully this passes sooner than later and we can get back to work.
The captain"s" usually go down with the ship. So likely anyone in that building from the janitorial staff on up is potential collateral damage. Not to mention the fact that they likely have a team of the best doctors, personal assistant's keeping them vitamin'd, hydrated, fed, and so on.
"The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%."
After all if we are going to jump off a cliff we should know as much as possible about the situation?
"I hope all finical resource don't repeat like the mortgage crises and end up in the pockets of the corporation."
Of course it will. Because smart people essentially always win, and dumb people have trouble spelling win.
If the population keeps reacting the way they are, this I'd bet this is going to make 2008 look like a hiccup. The good news is, 2008 did the most damage to the trades.
This go round tradesman won't be the worst hit.
Trump's base is most at risk from Covid 19. They need him.
If you overlay CDC maps of rates obesity, smoking cigarettes, COPD, and Trump support, they line up. These areas are mostly concentrated in the central and southern US. The people on the coasts seem to be healthier, and not support Trump. This is a disaster I never wanted to see.
I also trust NPR on their reporting. it seems to be a pretty serious new strain of virus and we are not prepared for it. funding for pandemics was cut by present administration but when trump first took office the two areas that obama warned him about was north korea and possible pandemics. in communities where social distancing is not common, there has been widespread infection and this doesnt happen yearly and as fast. I am an orthodox jew and live in fort lauderdale. we have a small community with 70 people on a usual sabbath and we have closed the building and there are no group services, which are crucial to prayer. in larger communities like Boro Park or Crown heights in brooklyn, they were late to implement socioal distancing and closing of houses of worship and this virus has spread like wildfire with many older people now on respirators and several have died. This is not a run of the mill flu and we have no therapy for it. its not a democrat hoax and its not going away soon.
Wow. I'm guessing that given the lack of on-topic responses on the original thread, and all of the subsequent responses on this spin-off thread, that nobody cares about the coming Festool price increase in April.
Festool is already way over priced, the domino is a useful tool of theirs, I am surprised no one else makes something similar. Everything else they sell you can buy something equivalent for a third of the price. They would be better off to lower their prices, get more volume and make more profit.
I guess if foolish tradesman are willing to pay their inflated prices, nothing will change.
As for Covid, I wish everyone the best possible outcome.
I'm in NE PA. and have not visited here in some time. However being a small,now one ,man shop I applied for an exemption to continue working based on the fact that my shop is not open to the public and I can store finished product until the quarantine is over. My exemption was denied and I was warned that serious fine and or licenses could be revoked if I continue operations. Seems all I am allowed to do is go to the lumber yard/hardware store and bring back supplies and look at them sit there. ??
A fellow crafts man with a crew of 10 was just given a warning to stop operations or face fines of 5K per day and loss of license.
As of this AM, Ron Paul has tested positive for the Corona virus, relating to the post 2 or 3 above this one. The rant linked to in post #64 appears to be one where the left/right, blue/red, right/wrong, duality is applied in an attempt to get the Trump Base unified 'against' the virus. Those MAGA hats have been shown to attract the virus......
The fact that Dr Ron has come down with the virus shows the virus doesn't care. Or does it?
We simply do not know enough to be definitive about anything except for the fact we do not know enough. Just as in the shop, when we don't know what we don't know, we suffer. We have all learned how to learn, though, so we are not immobilized by a shop quandary. This is different. We have to carry on, but we don't know the exact parameters of infection, much less death rates, infection rates, incubation, etc.
We (or, gawd help us, the Corona Task Force) have to make very important decisions with very little real data. That is frustrating. In my business, those are the worst decisions - where I can't know all I need to make the best choice.
Correction: Senator Rand Paul, Dr. Ron Paul's son is who has tested positive for Coronavirus.
Dr. Paul didn't appear to be ranting and raving. It seemed like a rational, measured, and well thought out warning against giving up the freedoms we all enjoy for some false sense of security that one might get holing up in their home hoping to ride the storm out and expecting their benevolent government leaders to take care of them and their family.
If Ron Paul is now buying the hype over all this just because Rand tested positive, he must be wringing his hands in fear and anguish telling his Son that he was just sentenced to death.
1.6 million deaths in 2017 from TB and no one in the media or government and especially not the general population batted an eye. 400 Coronavirus related deaths in the U.S. so far. All deaths are tragedies to the loved ones of the deceased, but some perspective is needed.
Yes, with very limited data precautions should be taken, but the fear and panic being created could just as likely be causing the virus to spread faster than if the response would have been more measured.
If I recall correctly, N95 was a standard for particulate mask, that would effectively remove 95% of the matter from the air. They were (are?) form fitting because of a face contact edge made of foam, a bendable nose bridge, and it had two elastic straps to secure to your face.
I also recall that the ones made for construction were not meant for use in the medical profession, and vice-versa. Possibly the shortages of them will relax those standards.
I don't think that they do much for vapors, which is why I switched to a cartridge respirator. Perhaps all that has changed since I started using that respirator years ago. My memory is not what it used to be. Must be the vapors.
Steven - Thanks for the correction. That will put and end to family dinners in the Rand households.
Paul's self serving piece most definitely sought to blame Democrats for the outbreak, despite all evidence to the contrary. At this time, we do not need leaders sowing division and blame. That could be the more reprehensible behavior - even more than insider trading on early briefings on Corona, or .... I don't need to detail it. Read the paper and listen to good news outlets, and read books. We will all find out soon enough of more instances of failed leaders.
If I give up cherished freedoms, etc, it is not due to my beliefs, it is due to the fact that leadership ignored loud, clear warnings and bullied their way around confronting the threat face to face. We all know Trump has neither the intellect or the staff to be able to comprehend the early days of a pandemic, much less dal with it in a manner that reduces threats instead of antagonizing it.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
- Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
BTW, did anyone else notice that Julio's post(I think it was his) was removed/censored?
Good day Gentlemen,
Like many of you I have a smaller woodworking business. I am in a country that is currently in a locked down situation. Will this hurt my business ? Of course it will but I am willing to accept this if it has the potential to save lives. Like Mr Broger I have fewer than 10 people that are very important to me but I will never say that the rest of humanity is unimportant as the rest of humanity has people that are important to them also. I have a question what would you mother and father say reading your comments.I know what mine would have said after living through the world war and seeing things most of us are lucky enough to only have heard about.
I agree that millions will not die but if it is only one that dies and that one is the most important person in the world to you will you not regret possibly doing more to protect them and by doing that everyone's loved ones
Yes I realize the risks taken by most of us every day as we have put our lives heart and souls into our businesses and what can come from a shut down of weeks or months as it is expected here. The potential for me is catastrophic. Frankly I am appalled by some of the attitudes expressed in some of these postings. Is money all that matters? A couple of the traits that separates humans from animals is the ability to reason and act in a compassionate manner. I wonder if you would read your own comments written by someone else and shake your head in disbelief. I do wish everyone health and getting through these times successfully.
Sorry for the rant but I think step back and take a deep breath is sometimes a wise decision. I did that before I wrote this for me having a woodworking business is more than the bottom line..
Nope. But my 15 years of effort matters to me, and barely a wiggle in the number of dead per year does not matter to me.
"What would your parents say"
Who cares? They're dead and have been for a long time. Why do you suddenly care about people? What made this the moment to climb on the internet and tell the world that six months ago it was okay for people to die, but today it no longer is? What are you doing to stop the other 56,000,000 deaths per year?
You don't think humans are animals? If things go sideways because of this posturing and nonsense, you'll see people eating babies, never mind whatever arrogant thought process brought you to think you're superior to everything else in the food chain. You may be smarter than a dog, but to another dog you taste the same.
Good morning, (well at least for me.. He He He) Thank you Richard.
Mr Broger, I have been doing this woodworking shtick for more than 40 years all self employed. Started over 3 times I do not think we are all that different in wanting to keep what we have earned. I want to comment but I will stay silent as this is not the place for it. I am sure if we met face to face we could see eye to eye. I do hope you and yours stay safe and your business prospers.
That is true for everyone here also.
Our main problem is that no one will ever get in trouble for measures that are too draconian. They will only get in trouble if they do too little. So, our politicians and those working with public health do much more than they should do.
No such draconian measures were applied during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and they obviously cannot be applied every winter, which is all year round, as it is always winter somewhere. We cannot close down the whole world permanently.
Should it turn out that the epidemic wanes before long, there will be a queue of people wanting to take credit for this. And we can be damned sure draconian measures will be applied again next time. But remember the joke about tigers. “Why do you blow the horn?” “To keep the tigers away.” “But there are no tigers here.” “There you see!”
– “Corona: an epidemic of mass panic”, blog post on Deadly Medicines 21st March 2020
The whole system failed. World wide, country wide and state wide. No one prepares for the worst because of the cost. NY had the opportunity to get ventilators in 2015 but decided to invest is solar instead. Was that a stupid decision? Back then, no. Now, yes.
Lot of discussion on this matter. One thing I do not understand is that the past was ignored (as for as locking down cities and pandemonia) This is what the CDN said about the 2018-19 flu season.
In total, the CDC estimates that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died. That’s fairly on par with a typical season, and well below the CDC’s 2017-2018 estimates of 48.8 million illnesses, 959,000 hospitalizations and 79,400 deaths.
On par for a typical season...and no one was quarantined, ordered to stay and quick working. Business did not stop and the economy did not collapse.
Seems the news media is fueling this with their editorial style instead of simply reporting the facts.
I love being able to hear the uncensored thoughts of my fellow business owners and tradesmen, even when I strongly disagree with them. I want reality of what people think. That information and perspective allows me to make the life and business decisions I need. Censored versions do not. I've been on this forum 20 years. I don't have a problem with anything said here and don't want it censored. Just want it to run both ways. Trying speaking this way about our last president or vice president and see how quickly our moderator shuts you down. Why is that?
I've learned a great deal from those on this forum that I disagree with. In some instances you've changed my thoughts in some small ways but even in staunch disagreement it's allowed me to see the reality of the situation of what I'm up against so that I can plan for that reality.
This virus is not the problem. Simply the trigger. The problems were already there waiting and getting bigger every day just looking for the trigger. If you refuse to see that you are surprised by what is unfolding and unprepared. But mostly because you didn't want to look or put your trust in the wrong people. We aren't even half way through the tip of the iceburg. Prepare accordingly.
This COVID-19 is very serious and must be taking all the cautions. We are in Miami, FL and have family in NYC one of them has the coronavirus, very young boy, he was diagnose first with pneumonia 90% positive for COVID-19. Let's all be responsible and stay safe, stay home
I have a number for you. To me it is the only number that matters. One. My wife. She fell ill this weekend. Her doctor said "Call the hotline." The hotline said "We won't test you unless your physician orders it." We called the doctor again, her response "The last time I ordered a test, I got in trouble for it. If the symptoms get worse, go to the ER." Which may be too late, she has other complicating health factors. Call it hype, call it panic driven overreacting, call it whatever you want. I just hope and pray that none of your families go through what mine is going through now.
Heart rending stories like above will become prevalent. They will become the norm.
We are 2-6 weeks away from any sort of peak. It will get much worse before it gets better.
The virus, unlike Republacrats or Democans, just doesn't care. It has one two step agenda, stay alive and reproduce.
How could this happen? Who is at fault?
Virus alone, Democrats alone, Democrats and virus, Republicans alone, Republicans and virus, Cuomo, Pelosi, god, satan, or biology.
You left out China. They have the biggest burden on them for letting this get as far as it did. If they let people in to help it might have been mitigated. And after that the WHO has the 2nd highest burden from not taking charge when this is exactly why they are there.
So for those of us in the US sitting and watching, seeing rise over the horizon and make its way here, who was in charge?
Who makes sense out of the agencies that observe and track, and test and report findings?
Who's job is it to coordinate, to steer, to find a way thru the ever changing data?
Like the Fed/Trump/Congress/Cabinet or hate 'em, their job is to lead. They do not know how to do anything but bicker since we allow it. Hell, we enjoy it. Unsure? Watch an episode of the Apprentice to find out what “matters”.
Notice how everyone staying home is "sustainable"? Agenda 2030 sustainable development. Complete and total control over every thing, every resource and every person. This matter is moving forward. This is a live exercise.
"How many Americans suffering from other illnesses cannot see a doctor now? How many Americans will lose their jobs, their life savings, their retirement prospects, and their incalculable feeling of self-worth? How many will succumb to depression, drug or alcohol abuse, and suicide? How many will lose their homes, divorce their spouses, or suffer abuse? How many will never recover in their careers? How many small businesses, including the vital ones of doctors, dentists, and veterinarians, will vanish from your community? How many young people will “fail to launch”?"
The sky is blue, the sky is red, the sky is blue, the sky is red.
No one knows what is right or wrong, no one knows what is better or worse. What is obvious is there are people in this thread who have friends and family who are seriously impacted by this. Both by the virus and by the economics of the shut down.
The smart thing to do at this time would be to keep our opinions to ourselves.
There are way too many moving parts for this to be a binary. And as far as I'm concerned, there is too little reliable data to predict the outcomes, both in terms of mortality rates and the impact on the economy. What we do have plenty of is narrative - but no matter how well crafted and logical a narrative is, it is still just a story.
I hope you all saw you can apply for a fully forgivable PPE loan, basically its fully burdened payroll (wages, FICA, SDI, health insurance you pay, 401k contributions) for last year /12 x 2.5 for the loan amount, interest only at .5% if you bring your employees back to work its forgivable is it used for
all the payroll items plus unities, mortgage or rent.
Also available for sole proprietors and 1099 workers. See your bank, applications can be made tomorrow.
Click the link below to download the file included with this post.
Thanks for the info. That is insane. So a small business with depressed or no sales and therefore no need or means to keep their employees employed can bring them back for two months pay for possibly doing little to nothing and get a little bit of free rent and utilities to boot? And it's all going to be forgiven?
So is little Joe Taxpayer going to be on the hook for all of this??
It's not ever getting paid off. The politicians have figured out that the system is going to reset, because there is no way to pay it off. So you might as well borrow until the cows come home and while the gett'n is good because that reset of the monetary system is going to happen.
Its more about liberty. When an constrictor snake squeezes the life out of it's prey it waits for the prey to exhale then it cinches it's grip tighter until the prey can no long breath.
After the housing crash government brought in a slew of regulations and agencies under the "Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act". Franks and Dodd were both the cause and the cure, along with Greenspan.
In all honesty though the main vehicle for the crash was the "victims" dipping into their HELOCs to create their own demise.
The real reason for the housing crash was a shrinking working age population.
Anyway since then we have gotten new bureaucracies that do nothing and cost a lot of money. Not to mention Bernanke's 4 trillion dollars in QE, still mostly on the balance sheet I believe.
Before that we got Bush's other legacy from 9/11 TSA, Homeland Security, Patriot Act, etc. Which just got renewed recently.
If you ever wondered why nothing ever changes in the government it is because of the Bureaucracy's who's sole purpose is to survive (virus s are the same way). Trump is being played by these bureaucracies the CDC and FDA have failed miserably in this crisis.
I predict now that we will see a slew of new agencies that will fix this mess, and the same people who caused the problem will fix it in concert with the media that has everybody scared to death.
The US gets away this IMO because of the dollar being strong and the reserve currency of the world and biggest economy in the world.
Because of an earlier agency (to fix the great depression caused and fixed by FDR & LBJ later with medicare) the entitlements will balloon the debt to 60-70 trillion.
Eventually the country will collapse under the debt but that will not be for a long time. Rome lasted for 1500 years...
I mean no disrespect to those affected by the virus
But I do believe that government made this situation worse.
We have a global economy now so the US can and does export inflation.
Since the world is getting old I don't think we will see inflation rates rise much.
Evidence of this can be seen in Japan with more per capita debt than any other country, yet very low inflation. Because they are the oldest industrialized country in the world. When people turn 60 they quit spending money.
I posted a video earlier on this thread #105, where Musk & Ma point out that the world will likely have a population implosion.
The assumption is sales will return after shelter in place is over and you will need to bring employees back. The math for this for us works out close to what we estimated we would lose standing still.
We are still short so we may do one of the 30 years loans to replace working capital ( our cash).
Of course taxpayers are paying it. I am being self reliant by taking adavnage of what is offered. In over 50 years I have never had a dollar from the government that I didn't contribute to.
If some of you don't want to take advantage of this that's fine. I don't think I am a communist to take advantage of the programs to keep my business healthy and afloat. The government threw me a life preserver, I could probally swim to shore without it and maybe hurt my business, why would I do that?
We were already going to pay our empployees health care while shutdown and were paying corvid-19 paid leave.
IMO the most complicit participants in the housing crash were the home owners themselves.
That and Greenspan creating in his own words irrational exuberance, followed by the Greenspan put (a way to bet on a stock going down, which encouraged investors to take more risk) Bernanke then continued with the Bernanke put.
Now Trump talks about the stock market being a metric for his performance. Presidents have very little to do with the economy. Although quarantines or shutdowns come close.
Barney Frank introduced language in a housing bill that forced the banks to make loans to minorities that the banks knew they couldn't pay back. But their hands were tied by legislation to make the loans.
If you went into a bank and they said you could afford the loan, what would you think? I would think they have confidence in me that I could sustain payments to the loan this bank was entrusting me too.
The people going into the load knowing full well that they couldn't afford them are to blame, so I agree with you 100% on that. But there were probably a lot of them that truly believed they could do it and the bank agreeing with them made them that more confident.
The legislation that forced banks to make loans to people that they knew couldn't pay them back because of their skin color was the main problem. And congress had no business dictating those types of laws to force the bank to make what were essentially unsecured loans to people that didn't have the wherewithal to pay them back.
But I digress, this is off topic.
Out and about today I saw people on the street wearing masks for the first time. One employee of the Ace Hardware had a mask and gloves, two had gloves, and the others, nothing.
I only have the so-called 'nuisance' masks, with one string, and just 4 of them. Better than nothing, or maybe just false confidence.
I heard some far Eastern oligarch stated the "it is better to die standing up than on your knees" in response to his being photographed shaking (bare) hands with know Covid patients. In elaboration, he also suggested two shots of vodka could kill the virus.
The mask dialogue should have started 3 weeks ago. The other, first dialogue should have started 8 weeks ago.
I started to read this thread when it started. I gave up quickly, because of people who were obviously uniformed making statements about it not going to be so bad. It's all the media's fault. Blah, Blah, Blah. I guess those people either read the World news, stopped listening to Trump and the Fox idiots or heard that NYC is going down quick.
Somehow this thread has now switched to blaming the GFC on old people and new problems on loans to minorities.
The root cause of the GFC was caused by deregulation. Previously the stock market & real estate market were separate. Typically moving in opposing cycles. Deregulation allowed them to be combined in mortgage credit default swaps. The Biggest banks(giving out bad mortgages)were now also Investment houses(trading MCDS) and also the Insurance companies(insuring the very same dodgy investments.
The fact that one Monster Corporation like Bank of America could act as a Bank, Investment House(who also used unregulated Hedge funds), and Insurance company with little oversight and inadequate capitalisation is what caused the problem.
The government bailout thru tons of free money at those "Banks". They used it to buy back into the stock market and drove it up based on zero evidence of company growth. Everyone burned their economics, and stock trading books. The market continued to go up. Employment replaced unemployment. Real estate was still bad, because the money was still in the Stocks.
Now, we sit here along with the rest of the World dissolving. The US has been given this rare opportunity to show that its entire barely regulated economy is an abject failure. The Govt is still months behind in exerting its powers to increase product and capacity. As well as using its singular position to manage the logistics.
American Hubris will crush this Country.
People will die of Covid. People will die of unrelated illnesses because they don't have health insurance. People will die because of the convoluted layers of bureaucracy. People will die because the benefits of being a citizen of the US are little to none. People will die because they listen to the False leaders who spew lies.
Finally the US will prove that's its healthcare system is in fact one of the worst of the first world nations. In the event of a pandemic you want a lean, efficient, single payer system. Where everyone has complete coverage without discussion. The logistics are straightforward compared to this utter insanity that we are enduring here.
The true test of the US will come after this nightmare is over. Do we change or not?
By the time this is over millions of people in the US will die from Covid, not the current 200k talking point.
Adam, New York is going down? How? From 4000 covid 19 deaths so far? Is that still worth crashing the economy? The only thing screwing New York and the rest of us dummies worrying about something they can not control and overreacting in the process.
The only reason anyone in this country doesn't have access to healthcare, is from their own personal decisions. Not that long ago, those people were allowed to die, hopefully before they passed on the derelict genes onto another worthless generation.
Since we are now in the midst of political conversation with Corona, I feel I can remind us all of the threat of Death Squads that was trotted out to scare the easily deceived and non-thinking amongst us during the Comprehensive Health Care Debate.
Very real death squads are now roaming the corridors of many major hospitals, trying to best utilize what resources are available. I don't think they are happy Democrats, gloating as they make their marks on their clipboards. But I could be wrong.
Without testing a control group of the general population the numbers are meaningless. Understanding this does not require a medical degree.
And yes I do think the world is overreacting. Using triage is not a death panel. Fueled by the media if anything is about making money.
Herd immunity is a partial solution, as a vaccine is likely years away.
Meanwhile business disappear, the suicide rate goes up:
"Suicides associated with unemployment totalled a nine-fold higher number of deaths than excess suicides attributed to the  economic crisis... Of an estimated 233,000 suicides each year in the 63 countries, which range from Kyrgyzstan to Japan, Russia, Romania, Denmark, Germany, the UK, Mexico, Canada and the US, one in five were due to unemployment."
China has 1.3 billion people and they had less than 5000 deaths so there number is even way smaller, but these are the numbers with countries doing what they can to stop it.
If you are sitting in your kitchen and having a coffee, the water line to your sink breaks, big noise, some water flying around, you shut off the tap, very little damage. Similar scenario, but you are in Hawaii on vacation, when the water starts running out your front door and down the street, past the neighbors, someone says we better call you. Unbelievable amount of damage.
Can you imagine if they just let the virus run it’s course. Wow, that would be unbelievable collateral damage and the economy would probably collapse in the end, there would be tons of suicide as people would be losing 3, 4 , maybe 10 or more friends and family?
Doesn’t matter what the scenario is, you can what if it to death, you can make the stats back up your opinion. Stats are so easy to manipulate. The equations are always constant but the inputs can be manipulated.
In the end your scenario might be right, but it might also be out to lunch.
One of the top doctors with the WHO says this is just a dress rehearsal for the big one, hopefully for the sake of our children and grandchildren we can learn some big lessons from this.
Have a wonderful day.
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To the question posted earlier if you think every other country in the world is overreacting?
YES, in many ways. The mandatory stay at home orders for *everyone* are definitely overreaction.
What we're seeing is collective hysteria/fear driven by media sensationalism and information that travels at the speed of light. Sweden seemed to have kept some sense about them.
From what I understand now we're never supposed to shake hands again? I posted a hyperbolic response a while back about going outside and calling 911 on your neighbors; unbelievably it came to be reality. Unfortunately, it feels like were living in Bizarro World.
Dr. Birx admitted "if someone dies *with* COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death."
After seeing the celebrations at New York hospitals on or about April 3 2020, I am no longer concerned about the virus. This is also in part because they have taken down all the triage tents at my local hospitals and i see doctors and nurses in and out with no masks. A drive thru test site in my city is empty. I am glad my customers seem to think the same way too because i have been very busy. Keep selling and keep working! My question is are you guys raising your prices due to all the fake money printing?
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