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Is a recession coming?7/30/20
Is it already here? Has it been here for a while now? Should I be worried?
Yes,Yes,and Yes. The fact that they're about to float more "helicopter money" in the form of stimulus checks should chill you to the bone. This little experiment is not going to end well for us lab rats. Sorry to sound so negative, but given the divided state the country and the world at large is in, I can't see I good outcome. Nothing,IMO, is going back to the way it was.
If they don't let the economy open up and they keep throwing money at the problem that no one has and no one can ever pay back, then yes. It's going to happen.
This flatten the curve thing has really gotten out of hand. Now it's up to we can't open up the economy until there is a vaccine. They've never come up with a vaccine that works with a coronavirus. So does that mean they will keep the economy shut down for the long term.
Right now I wouldn't put it past them.
Prepare yourself and business for tight times.
A Majically tremendous amount of money was vanished from income in the great tax giveaway of 2017, sevices incomes of govenment services from the lowest to the highest are being depleted, hospitals have little cash income from the shear volume of services they have had to provide from the small doctors cares to the largest hospitals ans undertakers "Little to no cash"
then comes the prop money. (Stimulus) added in
Now add that to the deficit we already had (Which was in reduction mode) and you got a heapping big number far into more than the 5-7 trillion we think now.
We had this coming before the Pandemic, just too many people thought we would out run it, the plan was one of attrition based on Bankruptcy
I worked for a lot of Billionaires in the the 80s on private yachts in places most will never see yet will on lifestyles of the rich and famous,, these guys are not like the millionaires many of us do business with in the commercial and residential woodworking trade.
I was raised to be Conservative on most all issues as a Man of the south, Yet i have seen little proof of that from the selected leaders in the recent past
Recession you ask are we in one, yes and it started in 2017 just finally got to where people are getting sober from the conservative Kool Aid we were told was water
Housing permits are looking very good.
The economy dropped 32% in GDP, yes a recession. But it will probably start recovering in Sept.
For 1/3 of America it is already here and is a depression, not a recession. It's coming for the rest of us soon. How quickly we forget, I was in the offices & shops of those preaching good days are here forever in 2001 & 2009, and saw the layoffs and the fear on their faces. They themselves might be on firmer ground these days but the majority of America it's about to get rough real rough. Do you think they run 5-7 TRILLION dollar deficits for nothing? This is the greatest financial experiment in the history of mankind and it will not end pretty. The cream of the crop usually makes out okay, those preaching good times though forget, 90% of anyone cannot be the cream of the crop. Whether through intelligence, skill, timing, location or downright luck (or more likely a combination of these) you have found yourself at the top of your profession yes you yourself will probably be fine. But for the majority this just is not so. Forget about the financials even. This country is ready to burn itself to the ground. We have rarely been more divided and never been more entitled. Those are not qualities that mix well and usually end in bloodshed. If we just get a recession, consider yourself lucky. Odds are it will be far worse.
Meh, come Sept thing will look good unless the overlord decide we need to continue the lock down
Don't you mean Nov?
Patrick didn't say what year.
It will start to recover in Sept unless the overlords keep the lock down going
That is probably true Leo, Nov 4th to be exact
I was pretty sure that I didn't have to give that specific date Pat. LOL
Looks like I was correct.
Well we prognosticators like to be as exact as we can. With everybody hinging on every word I say (8^))
That's an interesting question. We are up 10% year over year with 2 bad months. Our top 3 sales months ever happened this year. Two of the three after Covid started.
I believe people are home staring at their kitchens. They are saving money on eating out, gas and vacation.
So no matter your political beliefs put your head down and grind it out.
why worry about something you have no control over? Yes things are going to get bad, but how much worse then it is now no one knows. No matter your party preference we right now are suffering for a lack of leadership. We are going over the falls right now in a ship with no paddles and a captain without a clue. Trying to change the subject, or telling us just how well you are doing does not change the facts. Nothing will change until a true proven vaccine is developed(that the public has faith in). The Fed govt can't not keep paying everyone with printed money, and people will get quite use to being on the federal tit and it will be hard to wean everyone off of it and tell them to get back to work. Sooner or later people will have to find a way to feed and take care of their families without the support of State and federal had outs, and when that happens people will lose their houses, cars, and everything else they own and big business will enjoy all the cheap labor they can employ. I got my money put back, and I give no exposure what so ever to my assets. In 2008-2009 I bought plenty of equipment for pennies on the dollar, put it my warehouse and waiting and sold it at quite a profit, I even sold some of it to the same person who sold it to me, go figure
Nothing wrong with Hoping for the Best yet being "Smart enough" to prepare for the worst.....
Dconti, I disagree. There is no easy solution to this problem and no leader that knows the answer or it would have been offered by now. What country has cracked the code, I don't know of one?
I in no way want to get in political debate but in my simple thought is make hay while the grass is growing. I can not control the future, nor am I sure what is going to happen. If you are very sure that things are going to tank I suggest you short the market.
As a side note I have seen many many people test positive including sports people who are not taking the "cheap tests", then in subsequent tests they test negative. So a false positive. Do you think someone goes back and subtracts all the false positives? I don't think so. The numbers are inflated, the media loves that, fear is their product and they are selling the hell out of it right now.
I agree with Tim. The cancel culture thing is out of control.
We are seeing a slowdown in projects and more competitive pricing.
The ITR economists said commercial was going to be slow through 2021
Residential is going to be strong
Honestly we shoulda / coulda closed sooner, stayed closed longer, Much like Italy and the EU, then this thing woulda been far more in control..
No We were told it would just disappear..
Wow,I'm the one banned!
All the discussion about what is happening rings hollow if the virus has not come knocking at your door. Personally, I don't care if they miss the daily count by thousands, this situation can be dire in less than a week to anyone in America. My niece in Maryland has battled for 3 1/2 weeks now, lungs still rattling. My best friend's daughter has everyone in her household sick except for one son. Our daughter was a technical writer for an industrial company near Chicago. She was furloughed and now fired. We will be covering her mortgage soon as she is a single mother and we will provide for her and our grandson. She has to remain near her ex-husband due to BS divorce laws in IL. My part time artistic woodturning business is non existent, but it was to keep me busy and not provide needed income. So overall we are fairing much better than many, but worry for our family is far from over. My wife of 48 years is very high risk with severe asthma, so day to day is high anxiety for me. We don't spend a penny on anything but food. Who knows if I will have to support our son as well as our daughter. I know I can't be alone with this anxiety and big spending habit changes. Our son has always said this country is held together with bullshit and duct tape. The tape is gone.