Is it already here? Has it been here for a while now? Should I be worried?

Yes,Yes,and Yes. The fact that they're about to float more "helicopter money" in the form of stimulus checks should chill you to the bone. This little experiment is not going to end well for us lab rats. Sorry to sound so negative, but given the divided state the country and the world at large is in, I can't see I good outcome. Nothing,IMO, is going back to the way it was.

If they don't let the economy open up and they keep throwing money at the problem that no one has and no one can ever pay back, then yes. It's going to happen.

This flatten the curve thing has really gotten out of hand. Now it's up to we can't open up the economy until there is a vaccine. They've never come up with a vaccine that works with a coronavirus. So does that mean they will keep the economy shut down for the long term.

Right now I wouldn't put it past them.

Prepare yourself and business for tight times.

A Majically tremendous amount of money was vanished from income in the great tax giveaway of 2017, sevices incomes of govenment services from the lowest to the highest are being depleted, hospitals have little cash income from the shear volume of services they have had to provide from the small doctors cares to the largest hospitals ans undertakers "Little to no cash"

then comes the prop money. (Stimulus) added in

Now add that to the deficit we already had (Which was in reduction mode) and you got a heapping big number far into more than the 5-7 trillion we think now.

We had this coming before the Pandemic, just too many people thought we would out run it, the plan was one of attrition based on Bankruptcy

I worked for a lot of Billionaires in the the 80s on private yachts in places most will never see yet will on lifestyles of the rich and famous,, these guys are not like the millionaires many of us do business with in the commercial and residential woodworking trade.

I was raised to be Conservative on most all issues as a Man of the south, Yet i have seen little proof of that from the selected leaders in the recent past

Recession you ask are we in one, yes and it started in 2017 just finally got to where people are getting sober from the conservative Kool Aid we were told was water

Housing permits are looking very good.

The economy dropped 32% in GDP, yes a recession. But it will probably start recovering in Sept.

For 1/3 of America it is already here and is a depression, not a recession. It's coming for the rest of us soon. How quickly we forget, I was in the offices & shops of those preaching good days are here forever in 2001 & 2009, and saw the layoffs and the fear on their faces. They themselves might be on firmer ground these days but the majority of America it's about to get rough real rough. Do you think they run 5-7 TRILLION dollar deficits for nothing? This is the greatest financial experiment in the history of mankind and it will not end pretty. The cream of the crop usually makes out okay, those preaching good times though forget, 90% of anyone cannot be the cream of the crop. Whether through intelligence, skill, timing, location or downright luck (or more likely a combination of these) you have found yourself at the top of your profession yes you yourself will probably be fine. But for the majority this just is not so. Forget about the financials even. This country is ready to burn itself to the ground. We have rarely been more divided and never been more entitled. Those are not qualities that mix well and usually end in bloodshed. If we just get a recession, consider yourself lucky. Odds are it will be far worse.

Meh, come Sept thing will look good unless the overlord decide we need to continue the lock down

Don't you mean Nov?

LOL

Patrick didn't say what year.

It will start to recover in Sept unless the overlords keep the lock down going

That is probably true Leo, Nov 4th to be exact

I was pretty sure that I didn't have to give that specific date Pat. LOL

Looks like I was correct.

Well we prognosticators like to be as exact as we can. With everybody hinging on every word I say (8^))

That's an interesting question. We are up 10% year over year with 2 bad months. Our top 3 sales months ever happened this year. Two of the three after Covid started.

I believe people are home staring at their kitchens. They are saving money on eating out, gas and vacation.

So no matter your political beliefs put your head down and grind it out.

why worry about something you have no control over? Yes things are going to get bad, but how much worse then it is now no one knows. No matter your party preference we right now are suffering for a lack of leadership. We are going over the falls right now in a ship with no paddles and a captain without a clue. Trying to change the subject, or telling us just how well you are doing does not change the facts. Nothing will change until a true proven vaccine is developed(that the public has faith in). The Fed govt can't not keep paying everyone with printed money, and people will get quite use to being on the federal tit and it will be hard to wean everyone off of it and tell them to get back to work. Sooner or later people will have to find a way to feed and take care of their families without the support of State and federal had outs, and when that happens people will lose their houses, cars, and everything else they own and big business will enjoy all the cheap labor they can employ. I got my money put back, and I give no exposure what so ever to my assets. In 2008-2009 I bought plenty of equipment for pennies on the dollar, put it my warehouse and waiting and sold it at quite a profit, I even sold some of it to the same person who sold it to me, go figure

Nothing wrong with Hoping for the Best yet being "Smart enough" to prepare for the worst.....

Dconti, I disagree. There is no easy solution to this problem and no leader that knows the answer or it would have been offered by now. What country has cracked the code, I don't know of one?

I in no way want to get in political debate but in my simple thought is make hay while the grass is growing. I can not control the future, nor am I sure what is going to happen. If you are very sure that things are going to tank I suggest you short the market.

As a side note I have seen many many people test positive including sports people who are not taking the "cheap tests", then in subsequent tests they test negative. So a false positive. Do you think someone goes back and subtracts all the false positives? I don't think so. The numbers are inflated, the media loves that, fear is their product and they are selling the hell out of it right now.

I agree with Tim. The cancel culture thing is out of control.

We are seeing a slowdown in projects and more competitive pricing.
A-

The ITR economists said commercial was going to be slow through 2021

Residential is going to be strong

Honestly we shoulda / coulda closed sooner, stayed closed longer, Much like Italy and the EU, then this thing woulda been far more in control..

No We were told it would just disappear..

Imagine that

Wow,I'm the one banned!

All the discussion about what is happening rings hollow if the virus has not come knocking at your door. Personally, I don't care if they miss the daily count by thousands, this situation can be dire in less than a week to anyone in America. My niece in Maryland has battled for 3 1/2 weeks now, lungs still rattling. My best friend's daughter has everyone in her household sick except for one son. Our daughter was a technical writer for an industrial company near Chicago. She was furloughed and now fired. We will be covering her mortgage soon as she is a single mother and we will provide for her and our grandson. She has to remain near her ex-husband due to BS divorce laws in IL. My part time artistic woodturning business is non existent, but it was to keep me busy and not provide needed income. So overall we are fairing much better than many, but worry for our family is far from over. My wife of 48 years is very high risk with severe asthma, so day to day is high anxiety for me. We don't spend a penny on anything but food. Who knows if I will have to support our son as well as our daughter. I know I can't be alone with this anxiety and big spending habit changes. Our son has always said this country is held together with bullshit and duct tape. The tape is gone.

Rich, You are not alone,, We were never brought this far to be left in a ditch.

I have lost friends and relatives, finally I am on surgeons list to replace left Knee (out of 8 years) I am not going to get sick at any opportunity I have to not get it and help anyone who is smart enough.

Hang in there You are a Friend of Mine

Thanks James, I'm afraid the isolation is getting to me more than I care to admit. My wife had a knee replaced a year ago May. She still has a dead nerve spot on the outside of the knee, but just that one minor complaint. Stock up on ice before you go in, I bet she went through 100 pounds of ice with her cryo-cuff. Oddly you will also want to stock up on prune juice as the pain killers can have a narcotic effect on the piping. Got to keep things moving! LOL Stay safe.

I work in a large commercial shop in the SF Bay Area and we have a ton of work lined up for the next year.

TimG - check your email - you should have received a note explaining that your post was removed because it was a response to another post that violated guidelines. Once that post was removed, yours was also removed to maintain the flow of the thread. Hope that clarifies things -

It certainly is an odd time to be alive and a business owner. I am having a hard time making heads or tails of what is truly going on with the economy. I think to some degree it will be localized. I live in a wealthy rural area with good schools. We have seen quite an uptick in downstaters and other metropolitan people wanting to buy or build second homes to escape the cities in our area. I guess they figured out Hank Williams Jr had it right. I think it may be a trend. I just booked two very nice jobs that will keep me busy for the next year. However I’m wondering how long it will last if everything crashes as I expect it to. I believe we have to take measures to stop the spread of this disease, but we cannot let the cure destroy our economy and lively hoods. Be smart and stay safe everyone.

When the money in my previous homeland was printed as it is here these days, it was losing it's value literally overnight for whatever the newly printed amount was, plus some more to adjust for the government's irresponsibility and margin of future uncertainty due to government's stupidity. However that country was (and still is) on the opposite spectrum of size and power compared to the USA, so maybe there is a chance that this here ends differently, if the Roman proverb "That which is allowed to Jupiter is not allowed to an ox" still holds, but I wouldn't bet on that.

There's a family of four grownups in my neighborhood, where only the father worked part time at some 2-3 odd jobs, before Covid. After few months of these "measures" they bought new F-150 sport-like looking truck, with big "4x4" letters on it. I suppose it had to be bought for cash, considering their long unemployment history.
Money may be cheap to print, but that truck is a very real thing, and somebody will have to pay for it somehow in some real currency, one way or anther.

That truck was probably purchased on the incentives the auto companies put in with zero interest, no downpayment, and no payments at all for anywhere from 3-6 months. You might see it gone in a few months.

That was my thought exactly Rich. I am amazed at how often that happens in my area and for many years, not even anything related to covid. Less common with new but buy a used car, make a payment or two (or none) and ride it as long as you can til they take it away which is sometimes far longer than I would have ever imagined.

A lot of these measures being put forth by the government and corporate America have great intention but the rear view is a disaster.

The truck is a lease, and will vanish one day, never to be seen again.

A recession is coming, if it isn't here already. The signs are hard to read with the confusing factor of Covid and Great Giveaways. One problem and the Gov hands out money. Who is first inline? large corps and such sucked it all up. Same with round 2 of the Giveaways. At the drop of a hat, the Gov gives your tax money to large Corps. Then those same Corps point to the welfare Cadillac people to distract the Public Eye from the millions they - were allocated.

A pretty smart guy on here has said for years that when the People realize they can vote for free money and get it, then the Great Experiment - America - is gone. But, our old white men leaders have beat the People to it. The Corps are refining their ability to get whatever is being given.

Hence Kanye West getting millions in relief money and I wouldnt be surprised at all that Amazon even recording record profits has their lawyers and accountants angling for all the forgivable money they can possibly get.

We have sold our souls, and our souls have been sold out from under us willingly as we've whored out everything for the cheapest price no mater what the "cost". The cost to the planet, the cost to the future, the cost to our patriotism in supporting our own country,.. whored out for a nickle here, a dollar there.

And in the supporters of the systems mind its all a kiss it up to the all mighty god benefactor of capitalism and the market corrects itself. That ship has long sailed. The market controls not only its own sails, but it controls the wind, the tide, the current, the whole shabang.

You will buy what they tell you to buy, they offer you to buy, that makes Bezos' another 100 billion. The Walton's another trillion.

The U.S. was founded on the people controlling the offering by voting with their wallet. Those days have been gone for 20 years. There is no vote. You take from the offering you are served, all of which, is a medley of the highest profit items the servers are willing to offer. They will crush an offering that a threat in a heartbeat. A slim few will make it through but most will be snuffed out before you ever have the chance to see what quality ever was.

Look at this YRC disaster. A bunch of jillionaire hedge fund shysters, bought the company, stripped it bare pocketing all the money, cried/threatened the workforce (union so beat that one to death) for concessions (which they received), took those concessions, RE-STRIPPED the company again from their private yachts, and now have got this administration in a 700+ million dollar load and the US government is now in a sharktank 30% share in the company which will undoubtedly be liquidated on the block in a matter of months and likely sold back to the private yacht club that stripped it bare the first time.

The sheep are stripped of their wool and still wandering around looking at the long ball that is a total sham.

This was a time for corporate "America" to be patriots, and do the right thing. They have never, and they didnt this time, and they should be hung for treason on the courthouse steps.

We are in a recession duh

This one was caused by the government,there is no over investment it won't last.

Prepare for good times

The Great Reset as seen on World Economic Forum.

The non scientific colloquial answer is:
A recession is when your neighbor is out of work
A depression is when you are out of work.

A-

During the "Great Recession", I managed to skate until 2010 with work, and could not believe that others were complaining about not having any jobs, as I actually had to sub out work. And then I went off the cliff, and it made me a believer.

I think Alan is right, and that same sentiment is applicable as to whether or not you are a "Covid-19 believer". If you know someone who has it or has died from it, it is very real. If you do not, you may wonder about all the fuss over masks and social distancing.

If I am surprised by anything, it is that a thread on the Woodweb about economics has 36 replies, and so far not one single graph from Pat Gilbert. :^)

TonyF

I hear you Tony, you're jonesing for graphs

I stole this one from ITR Economics.

The ones that are not so good are the red ones for residential

View higher quality, full size image (975 X 651)

Where is Pat Gilbert, Hope he is Ok...

That Graphic shows Ct at -11.7? I son't know, something is not right. New Yorkers are buying houses here in Ct like we never seen before, just to get out of the City due to Covid, they're putting deposits without even see the houses, bidding wars, there's construction all over the place here, things are nuts here, I'm using 3 other shop to help me out because we can't keep up.

Edi

Is it possible that the data in the chart is previous to the interest rates going down?